中微公司-建立平台型WFE，赋能本土AI供应链；维持“增持”评级

Summary of Conference Call Notes Company and Industry Overview - Company: 中微公司 (Company A) - Industry: Semiconductor Equipment Manufacturing, specifically Wafer Fabrication Equipment (WFE) Key Points and Arguments 1. Market Sentiment Improvement: The market sentiment for domestic WFE has rapidly improved over the past two to three months, driven by successful IPOs of several AI chip companies and the upcoming IPO of Changxin Storage during the storage upcycle. This improvement is expected to sustain the valuation adjustments for WFE companies as the expansion of the domestic AI supply chain enhances capital expenditure resilience [1][6][11]. 2. Sales and Profit Forecast: 中微公司 is projected to maintain strong sales and profitability through 2027, primarily due to the increasing sales proportion of advanced storage applications. The company is expected to enhance its leading position through internal R&D and external acquisitions [1][11]. 3. Acquisition Strategy: 中微公司 announced the acquisition of a 64.69% stake in Hangzhou Zhonggui, a non-listed company specializing in CMP processes and equipment. This acquisition is seen as a strategic move to enhance its position as a comprehensive supplier and diversify its product offerings [6][11]. 4. Valuation Adjustments: The global WFE companies are currently valued at 2-3 standard deviations, reflecting potential investment drivers in the AI chip and storage capacity sectors. The domestic WFE market is expected to experience sustainable valuation adjustments over the next 2-3 years due to improved domestic substitution levels and strong sales growth [6][11]. 5. Target Price Update: The target price for 中微公司 has been raised to 380.00 CNY, based on a 32x forward P/E ratio, which is close to the historical average of domestic peers. This reflects the company's strong growth prospects and improving market sentiment [2][15]. Financial Highlights - Revenue Projections: - FY2024: 9,065 million CNY - FY2025: 13,813 million CNY - FY2026: 22,461 million CNY - FY2027: 29,935 million CNY - Revenue growth rates are projected at 44.7% for FY2024, 52.4% for FY2025, and 62.6% for FY2026 [3][10]. - Profitability Metrics: - Adjusted net profit for FY2026 is projected at 4,979 million CNY, with an adjusted EPS of 7.95 CNY [10][11]. Additional Important Information 1. Risks: Key risks affecting the rating and target price include potential restrictions on sourcing critical components from U.S. suppliers, interruptions in capacity expansion affecting delivery schedules, and weak downstream demand impacting customer procurement or capital expenditures [16][11]. 2. Market Performance: The stock has shown strong performance with a year-to-date increase of 23.4% and a 12-month increase of 85.0% [8]. 3. Analyst Ratings: The current rating for 中微公司 is "Overweight," indicating expected performance above the average total return of stocks covered by the research team [24][27]. 4. Market Position: 中微公司 is recognized as the second-largest semiconductor equipment manufacturer in China, benefiting from the decoupling of the semiconductor supply chain and accelerated domestic spending on WFE equipment [11][14]. This summary encapsulates the essential insights from the conference call, highlighting the company's strategic direction, financial outlook, and market dynamics.