全球股票市场展望：牛市行情延续-Global Equity Road Ahead_ The Bull Market Continues

Summary of Global Equity Road Ahead Industry Overview - The report focuses on global equities, particularly the MSCI AC World Index, with projections for 2026 indicating a target of approximately 10% upside by year-end [1][6][28]. Core Insights and Arguments Market Performance and Projections - Global equities are expected to continue climbing, with a target of around 10% upside for the MSCI AC World by the end of 2026 [1][6]. - The consensus anticipates global EPS growth accelerating to +14% in 2026, up from +11% in 2025, with all major regions and sectors contributing positively [3][6]. - The US and Emerging Markets (EM) are projected to sustain double-digit EPS growth, while Europe ex-UK is expected to see the largest acceleration from +1% in 2025 to +10% in 2026 [3][6]. Valuation Concerns - Current valuations are stretched, with the MSCI AC World trading at a forward PE of approximately 19x, placing it in the 90th percentile compared to the past 25 years [4][23]. - The US market is the most expensive at 22x (91st percentile), while EM is at 92nd percentile [4][24]. Sector Recommendations - Preferred sectors include Technology, Financials, and Health Care, while Consumer sectors are underweighted [6][66]. - Financials are noted for strong earnings upgrades, and Health Care is highlighted as a preferred defensive sector [66]. Additional Important Insights Market Themes - Key themes include the desire for equity market diversification, the impact of AI on earnings, and the expectation of a "Goldilocks" economic environment characterized by resilient growth and controlled inflation [5][51]. - The AI sector is projected to grow significantly, with AI services revenue expected to increase by 86% annually through 2030, and AI-related capital expenditures growing at 45% [44][46]. Economic Outlook - The global economy is expected to grow around 2.7% in 2026, with the Federal Reserve likely to implement rate cuts, which historically support equity performance [51][52]. - The report emphasizes the importance of EPS delivery amidst high valuations, as any failure to meet earnings forecasts could lead to increased market volatility [1][11]. Regional Insights - Emerging Markets are maintained at an Overweight position due to expected strong EPS growth of +17% in 2026, benefiting from Fed cuts and AI thematic exposure [60][88]. - The US remains Neutral, with a focus on Growth sectors, while Japan is also Neutral, facing risks from currency strength and geopolitical tensions [61][90]. Risks and Considerations - Potential risks include geopolitical tensions, economic soft-landing cracks, and skepticism around AI investment returns, which could introduce volatility [11][12]. - The report highlights the need for careful monitoring of EPS momentum, particularly in Small/Mid-Cap stocks, which are expected to outpace Large Cap peers in growth [19][20]. Conclusion - The overall sentiment is cautiously optimistic, with expectations for continued growth in global equities supported by strong EPS growth and favorable economic conditions, despite high valuations and potential risks [1][28].