PC 与服务器：AI 及云服务商通用服务器需求强劲，推高 PC 零部件价格压力-PCs and Servers_ AI and CSP general server strength drives component pricing pressure for PCs

Summary of J.P. Morgan's PC and Server Market Analysis Industry Overview - The analysis focuses on the PC and server markets, highlighting trends and forecasts for shipments and demand in the coming years. Key Points on PC Market - Shipment Growth Forecasts: - Adjusted global PC shipment growth forecast for 2025 is +8%, while a decline of -9% is expected in 2026 [1] - Demand Trends: - Anticipated downside in PC unit demand due to memory-driven product price hikes [1][4] - A significant 20%+ increase in product prices has been noted recently, impacting consumer PC demand [4] - Forecasts indicate 10% decline in consumer PC shipments and 7% decline in commercial PC shipments for 2026 [11] - Commercial PC Demand: - Muted refresh demand is expected this year, with a potential pause in demand from 2Q26 onwards [1][11] - Competition: - Increased competition in mainstream PCs due to new model launches from major players like Dell and Apple [4] Key Points on Server Market - General Server Demand: - Strong demand from US Cloud Service Providers (CSPs) is expected to continue into 2026, particularly for storage servers driven by AI inference activities [4] - Forecasted 30%+ growth in CSP server shipments, offset by a single-digit decline in enterprise server demand [11] - AI Server Growth: - Notable ramp-up in GB300 server shipments is expected, with estimates of 50-70k NVL72 rack shipments this year, driven by strong AI server demand [4] - Anticipated growth in ASIC server demand, particularly for TPU servers [4] - Overall Server Shipment Growth: - Total server shipment growth forecast for 2026 is 14.6%, up from previous estimates of +4.6% [11] Key Companies Mentioned - Positive Outlook: - Companies such as Wiwynn, Hon Hai, and Quanta are favored in the server ODM space [1] - For server components, ASPEED, Delta, Jentech, and Lotes are highlighted [1] - Cautious Outlook: - Companies like ASUSTek, Micro-Star, and Compal are viewed with caution due to expected challenges in the PC segment [1] Additional Insights - Memory Component Costs: - A significant increase in memory component costs is expected, leading to at least double YoY memory costs in the upcoming quarters [4] - Market Dynamics: - The report indicates a prolonged supercycle in general servers driven by AI demand, with potential risks from component supply constraints [4] This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the J.P. Morgan analysis on the PC and server markets, providing a comprehensive overview of expected trends, challenges, and opportunities within the industry.