中国经济透视：2026 年宏观主题与潜在变数-Asia Insights - China_ Beijing announces termination of VAT rebates for exports of solar and battery products

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the solar and battery products industry in China, particularly regarding the changes in value-added tax (VAT) rebates for exports of these products [1][2][3]. Core Insights and Arguments - Termination of VAT Rebates: The Chinese government announced the complete termination of VAT rebates for solar products by April 1, 2026, and a phased reduction for battery products, which will see rebates lowered to 6% on the same date and completely canceled by January 1, 2027 [2][3]. - Reasons for the Policy Change: This decision is driven by several factors: - An ongoing anti-involution campaign aimed at curbing excessive price competition and overcapacity in the manufacturing sector [4]. - A significant trade surplus exceeding USD 1.1 trillion in 2025, prompting the government to take measures to manage this surplus without relying on currency appreciation [1][3]. - Impact on Exports: The termination of VAT rebates is expected to lead to a front-loading of exports for solar products in Q1 2026 and for batteries in the second half of 2026 [1][13]. Additional Important Information - Export Performance: In 2025, China's solar panel exports increased by 73.6% in volume but decreased by 9.6% in value, indicating a significant gap between volume and value growth [6]. Battery exports also showed growth, with lithium-ion battery shipments increasing by 25.6% in value and 19.3% in volume [6]. - Investment Trends: The manufacturing sector, particularly in electrical machinery and equipment, has seen a decline in fixed asset investment growth, dropping from -8.0% in Q2 to -12.2% in Q3 2025 [5]. This reflects the adverse effects of the anti-involution campaign on investment levels. - Trade Tensions: The ongoing trade tensions, particularly with the EU, may lead to increased tariffs and trade barriers against Chinese goods, as highlighted by the potential for a "second China shock" [12]. Conclusion - The changes in VAT rebates for solar and battery products represent a significant shift in China's trade policy, aimed at addressing overcapacity and trade surplus issues while potentially impacting export dynamics and investment in the sector [1][3][4][12].