中际旭创深度报告解读电话会

Summary of the Conference Call on Zhongji Xuchuang Industry Overview and Market Prospects - Optical Module Market Logic: Optical technology is crucial for future interconnect and computing fields due to its physical advantages in speed and scalability, particularly in SerDes above 224G and 448G [3][4] - Market Size and Technological Iteration: The scale-up market is emerging, with the same generation bandwidth being nine times that of scale-out, indicating significant future growth potential. Optical module rates are expected to continue evolving from 800G to 12.8T, showcasing a broad market space [3] - 2026 as a Key Year: Anticipated significant growth in optical module volumes, particularly for 800G and 1.6T, with overall market size expected to increase, leading to improved industry profit margins [3] - Supply and Demand Dynamics: The optical module market is projected to experience a supply shortage from 2026 to 2027, with strong demand. Companies that can deliver more optical modules will have a competitive edge [3] Company Positioning and Technical Advantages - High-End Product Focus: The company has positioned itself in high-end products since its inception and was one of the first suppliers certified by Google, indicating a strong technical foundation [3] - Performance Driven by Cloud Capital Expenditure: Over the past decade, the company's performance has been closely tied to the capital expenditure of overseas cloud vendors, with revenue growth following capital expenditure trends [3] - Short to Medium-Term Performance Drivers: The expected demand for 1.6T optical modules in 2026 is projected to reach 20-30 million units, a tenfold increase year-on-year, driven by AI penetration and data center speed upgrades [3] Technological Layout and Long-Term Competitiveness - Silicon Photonics Capability: The company aims to address EML shortages and improve gross margins in the short term while laying the groundwork for higher integration optical modules in the long term [4] - Diverse Technological Routes: The company is pursuing multiple technology paths, including NPO, CPC, and CPO, with plans to showcase demos and launch products in 2026 [4] - 3.2T Optical Module Development: The company is advancing in the development of 3.2T optical modules, with expectations to maintain a competitive edge in the market [4] Valuation and Market Position - Transition to a Platform Company: The company is evolving from an optical module manufacturer to a platform company, expanding its product market to include switches and other areas, which is expected to enhance profit margins [4] - Undervalued Stock: The company is perceived to be undervalued, with future PE ratios expected to be around 20-30 times, indicating potential for valuation re-rating [4] - Hong Kong Listing Expectations: A potential listing in Hong Kong could lead to a revaluation, as foreign investors tend to assign higher premiums to leading companies [4] AI Demand and Data Center Capital Expenditure - Increased AI Penetration: By early 2026, the consumption of OpenAI's API tokens is expected to increase by over 900% compared to early 2025, indicating a surge in AI-related demand [4] - Formation of AI Commercialization Loop: As of October 2025, 74% of U.S. tech companies are paying for AI services, a nearly 40 percentage point increase year-on-year, supporting the demand for AI computing infrastructure [4] Optical Interconnect Penetration - Improving Optical Interconnect Rates: The transition from copper to optical interconnects is becoming more pronounced, with optical technology beginning to penetrate scale-up scenarios, driving demand for 1.6T optical modules [4] - Physical Limits of Copper Connections: As single-wave rates approach 400G, the physical limitations of copper connections are becoming evident, highlighting the inherent advantages of optical technology [4]