中国必需消费 - 12 月跟踪及企业日总结：2026 年展望谨慎，关注人民币走势与分化的业绩基数-China Consumer Staples_ Dec Check-in & Corp Day Wrap_ Cautious outlook into 2026, eyeing CNY trends with mixed comps

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview: China Consumer Staples Key Themes and Trends 1. Cautious Outlook for 2026: The industry is observing a cautious outlook into 2026, with a focus on the trends surrounding the Chinese New Year (CNY) [2] 2. Mixed Performance in Beverages: - Nongfu and Eastroc maintained strong momentum with double-digit growth despite being in a slack season, driven by strong product cycles [1] - Tingyi and UPC beverages experienced a decline in December due to heightened competition, although subsidies for freshly-made drinks have retreated [1] 3. Beer Demand: - Overall beer demand remains subdued, particularly in on-trade channels, with Bud China seeing a deeper sequential decline [1] - CR Beer and Chongqing Brewery managed slight volume growth, while Tsingtao's volume increased by 12% on easier comparisons [1] 4. Condiments and Frozen Foods Recovery: - Haitian reported sustained growth in the mid-single to high-single digits, with a faster quarter-on-quarter growth in Q4 [1] - Anjoy's growth accelerated in December despite a higher base, indicating a favorable setup for Q1 [1] 5. Dairy Sector Stabilization: - Liquid milk demand is stabilizing after a period of destocking, with herd downsizing settling at a 4.5% year-over-year decline [1] - Raw milk prices held steady at approximately Rmb3.03/kg in December, with a 3.0% year-over-year decline in average prices for Q4 [1][24] Company-Specific Insights 1. Yili: - Management highlighted an improving raw milk supply-demand balance supported by herd downsizing, although demand remains lackluster [2] - The company is focusing on channel inventory discipline and targeted marketing to sustain performance [8] 2. Haitian: - Noted a sequential acceleration in Q4 and sees potential for consumption upgrading in chained restaurants [2] 3. Anjoy: - Resumed double-digit sales growth since September, driven by enhanced execution and channel strategies [8] 4. CR Beer: - Expects no incremental SG&A investment impact in 2026, focusing on maintaining margins amid cost pressures [8] Market Dynamics 1. Expense Outlook: - The expense outlook remains cautious, with a focus on margin expansion for beer, dairy, and food & beverage sectors amid diminishing cost benefits [8] 2. Channel Health: - Companies are making efforts to sustain channel health throughout 2025, which is expected to underpin recovery in 2026 [8] 3. New Product Cycles: - A sequentially improving outlook for both Yili and Mengniu is anticipated, supporting volume and margin accretion [8] Investment Preferences 1. Preferred Sectors: - Beverage, pet foods, and condiments/prepared foods are highlighted as sectors with potential for growth [9] 2. Key Stock Ideas: - Recommendations include Eastroc, Nongfu, Weilong for visible growth, and Haitian H-shares/Anjoy as early beneficiaries of on-trade recovery [9] Additional Insights 1. Snacks Performance: - Weilong sustained strong sales growth in December, with vegetable snacks up over 30% year-over-year [1] 2. Pet Foods: - China Pet Foods led in year-over-year growth in December, while other covered names weakened compared to previous months [32] This summary encapsulates the key points from the conference call records, providing insights into the current state and future outlook of the China consumer staples industry.