半导体：存储芯片无需转向悲观-Semiconductors-Old Memory No Reason to Turn Negative

Summary of Conference Call on Greater China Semiconductors Industry Overview - The focus is on the old memory semiconductor market, specifically DDR4, DDR3, NOR, and SLC/MLC NAND segments - The supply/demand gap is expected to widen further, indicating a positive outlook for old memory vendors [1][2] Key Points Market Performance - Old memory stocks have shown strong year-to-date performance in January 2026, with notable increases: - Winbond +26% - Nanya +28% - Macronix +54% - PSMC +28% - Gigadevice +18% - Comparatively, TAIEX and SHCOMP indices increased by 6.5% and 4.5% respectively [2] Pricing Trends - DDR4 pricing is expected to rise by 50% in Q1 2026, continuing into Q2, driven by aggressive buying from tier 1 enterprise customers [3] - A severe shortage in high-density DDR3 products is anticipated due to capacity allocation shifts from DDR3 to DDR4 [3] - NOR Flash pricing is projected to increase by 20-30% in Q1 2026, with further upside expected in Q2 and visibility extending into H2 2026 [4] Vendor Insights - Winbond is highlighted as the top pick among old memory vendors, with expectations of ROE expansion lifting overall multiples across the sector [2] - Other vendors like Macronix and Powerchip are expected to catch up due to favorable market conditions [2] - PSMC's P5 fab is noted for its capacity to support HBM4e and hybrid bonding, which could benefit old memory vendors [5] Price Target Adjustments - Price targets for several companies have been raised: - Winbond from NT$88.00 to NT$130.00 - Nanya from NT$41.00 to NT$56.00 - Macronix from NT$48.00 to NT$72.50 [6] Earnings Estimates - Winbond's EPS estimates have been revised: - 2025: NT$1.04 (down 10%) - 2026: NT$10.68 (up 81%) - 2027: NT$14.12 (up 65%) [27] - The revenue estimates for 2026 and 2027 have also been raised due to stronger pricing expectations for specialty DRAM and NOR flash [27] Risk and Reward Analysis - The stock is expected to trade at a P/B multiple of 3.9x 2026e BVPS, reflecting strong DRAM pricing upside and sustainable NOR pricing hikes [31] - Bull case value is set at NT$156.00, while bear case value is at NT$54.00 [32] Additional Insights - The ongoing cannibalization of old memory capacity is noted, with DDR4 driving up pricing and affecting DDR3 [9] - The shift in market share for PC NOR from Mainland China to Taiwan is anticipated, providing more opportunities for Taiwanese vendors [37] Conclusion - The old memory semiconductor market is poised for continued growth into 2026, with significant price increases expected across various segments. Winbond remains a top pick, supported by strong performance and favorable market dynamics.