存储行业发展趋势交流

Summary of Storage Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The storage industry is undergoing a transformation driven by AI and data centers, with a shift in focus from consumer electronics like PCs and mobile devices to AI data centers starting in Q4 2025. It is expected that data centers will become the primary revenue source over the next decade [1][4]. - There is a significant demand increase for NAND flash memory from CSPs like NVIDIA, primarily for long text processing KV cache, which is expected to account for about 10% of total NAND capacity from NVIDIA alone [1][5]. - HBM (High Bandwidth Memory) demand is also strong, with manufacturers increasing investments in HBM and DRAM. HBM is projected to account for 50% of revenue for three major clients over the next five years [1][6]. Key Trends and Changes - The traditional classification of hot and cold data is becoming obsolete, with microsecond-level latency becoming critical in data centers. Solutions like HBM, which are close to GPUs, are widely adopted [1][7]. - The storage industry is currently experiencing a supply-demand imbalance, with a rapid decline in demand following a surge in 2022. New capacity investments will take 3-5 years to materialize, making short-term relief unlikely [1][11]. - There are notable differences in storage market demands between the US and China, with US data centers requiring high IOPS large-capacity SSDs due to AI needs, while Chinese internet companies have historically used smaller capacity SSDs [1][12]. Pricing Dynamics - The pricing logic in the storage industry is shifting, with HBM potentially adopting high-profit margin pricing similar to the GPU industry. HBM is prioritized over enterprise storage, while consumer storage has weaker bargaining power [2][15]. - The storage industry has seen a significant change in price and cost structure since Q4 2025, moving from a consumer-driven market to one dominated by AI and data centers. The profit margin for the storage industry was around 45%, while the GPU industry reached 70% [15]. Market Demand and Supply - The current demand for DRAM and HBM is very strong, with manufacturers focusing capital expenditures on these areas. The transition from 2D DRAM to 3D DRAM is ongoing, but full adoption may take 5-10 years [6]. - The global storage industry typically experiences cycles every 3-4 years. The demand surge in 2022 led to the highest prices in 20 years, but subsequent policy changes caused a rapid decline in demand, resulting in significant losses for companies like Samsung [10][11]. Future Outlook - New storage technologies and products are evolving to improve efficiency and reduce latency, with a focus on diverse application scenarios to meet growing data processing needs [9]. - Domestic storage module manufacturers face challenges in securing wafer resources due to high demand and competition from major manufacturers, which may prioritize high-margin products [16]. - The introduction of new storage technologies is unlikely in the next one to two years, with existing devices being optimized through software rather than new breakthroughs [19].