为什么2026年可能是原奶-乳制品大年

Summary of Conference Call on Dairy Industry and Companies Industry Overview - The dairy industry is expected to experience significant development opportunities in 2026 due to supply and demand dynamics. [1] - The supply side is facing continuous reductions in domestic and imported capacity, with increased feed cost pressures. [2] - As of September 2025, approximately 200,000 dairy cows have been culled, but overall raw milk production is still experiencing slight growth due to increased productivity in larger farms. [1][2] - The demand side is supported by consumption promotion policies and the exploration of deep processing capacities, which are expected to drive dairy product demand. [1][3] Key Points on Supply and Demand - The overall raw milk production is expected to reach a balance in 2026, potentially leading to a price turning point. [1][3] - The price of beef has rebounded by approximately 10% since February 2025, with a significant reduction in the number of beef cattle, which decreased by 2.4% year-on-year to 99.32 million by the end of Q3 2025. [1][4] - The current beef cattle breeding cycle is long, leading to amplified supply-demand mismatches. [4] Companies Benefiting from Industry Trends - Companies such as Yili Group, Mengniu Dairy, China Feihe, and Li Zijun are expected to benefit from investments in deep processing lines, which are projected to contribute over 4 million tons of fresh milk demand. [1][5] - Yili Group's raw milk production is approximately 4 million tons, with profit elasticity of 400 million yuan for every 0.01 yuan increase in milk price. [2][10] - The profitability of upstream dairy farms is expected to increase due to rising milk and beef prices, while downstream dairy companies will also benefit from improved demand and reduced competition. [10] Import and Export Dynamics - China is tightening import policies for beef, with a total quota of 2.688 million tons for 2026, a 6.3% decrease from 2024. [8] - The import cost is expected to rise due to a 55% tariff on imports exceeding quota limits, further tightening supply. [8] Additional Insights - The solid milk market in China is still in its early stages, with many companies beginning to invest in deep processing lines. [3] - The overall beef supply is expected to continue to shrink globally, with China’s actual import share exceeding 30%. [7] - The current beef cycle is anticipated to last approximately 2 to 3 years, influenced by the lag in production capacity adjustments and the implementation of new import policies. [9]