中国生物科技-催化剂前瞻：未来看点-China Biotechnology-Catalyst Preview What's Ahead

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - Industry: China Biotechnology - Market Outlook: The overall view of the China Healthcare industry is considered attractive, indicating potential growth opportunities in the sector [3][6]. Company-Specific Catalysts Abbisko Cayman Ltd (2256.HK) - Catalyst: ABSK043 (oral PD-L1) Phase 2 data on 6-month PFS in treated EGFRm+ NSCLC expected in 1Q26 - Importance: High - Surprise Potential: Modest upside surprise anticipated - Key Takeaways: - Safety data from ESMO Asia 2025 is expected to guide therapeutic potential and outlook for dose expansion in 1L EGFRm+ NSCLC patients [6][7]. Akeso, Inc. (9926.HK) - Catalyst: Gumokimab (AK111) NMPA BLA approval for moderate-to-severe plaque psoriasis in 1Q26 - Importance: Neutral - Surprise Potential: In-line - Key Takeaways: - Revenue forecast of approximately Rmb1,037 million by 2030, with a 90% probability of success (PoS) [6][7]. Duality Biotherapeutics Inc (9606.HK) - Catalyst: DB-1311 (B7H3 ADC) data update for 2L+ mCRPC in 1Q26 - Importance: High - Surprise Potential: In-line - Key Takeaways: - Previous data showed median rPFS of 8.3 months, competitive against other therapies [7][8]. Everest Medicines Ltd (1952.HK) - Catalyst: Etrasimod NMPA NDA approval for moderate-to-severe UC in 1Q26 - Importance: High - Surprise Potential: In-line - Key Takeaways: - Revenue forecast of approximately Rmb1,192 million by 2030, with an 88% PoS [7][8]. HUTCHMED (China) Ltd (0013.HK) - Catalyst: Sovleplenib (HMPL-523) NMPA BLA re-submission in ITP/wAIHA in 1Q26 - Importance: Neutral - Surprise Potential: In-line - Key Takeaways: - Revenue forecast revised down to US$126 million by 2030, with a 79% PoS [7][8]. InnoCare Pharma Ltd (9969.HK) - Catalyst: Orelabrutinib (BTK) Phase 3 ITP data readout in 1Q26 - Importance: Neutral - Surprise Potential: In-line - Key Takeaways: - Cross-read from Roche's fenebrutinib Phase 3 data expected to provide insights [10][12]. Keymed Biosciences Inc. (2162.HK) - Catalyst: Enrollment completion in Phase 1 study for obesity expected by YE25 - Importance: Neutral - Surprise Potential: In-line - Key Takeaways: - Anticipated data availability in late 1Q26, with a competitive clinical profile expected [22][23]. Zai Lab Ltd (ZLAB.O) - Catalyst: Povetacicept (BAFF/APRIL) Phase 3 data presentation in 1Q26 - Importance: Neutral - Surprise Potential: Modest upside surprise - Key Takeaways: - Revenue forecast of Rmb2,196 million for 2030, indicating market discounts on asset potential [39][40]. Additional Insights - Market Trends: The therapeutic landscape is evolving, with a focus on oral therapies gaining traction against injectable options [6][7]. - Regulatory Environment: Companies are navigating complex regulatory landscapes, impacting timelines and revenue forecasts [7][8]. - Investment Considerations: Investors are advised to consider the potential for modest upside surprises in upcoming data releases, particularly in the context of current valuations and market expectations [39][40].