半导体-投资者反馈：多数看涨（尤其前端 SPE），但也警惕短期风险收益比_ Semiconductors_ Investor feedback_ Many bullish, especially on front-end SPE, but caution also on near-term risk-reward

Summary of Conference Call on Japan Technology: Semiconductors Industry Overview - The focus of the conference call was on the semiconductor industry, particularly front-end and back-end equipment manufacturers, as well as NAND memory producers [1][2]. Key Points Discussed Front-End Equipment - Investor sentiment is bullish on front-end semiconductor equipment (SPE) makers, with expectations for double-digit growth (over 10%) in the wafer fabrication equipment (WFE) market for both calendar years 2026 and 2027 [2]. - The outlook for the WFE market has improved significantly, with previous expectations for CY26 growth being in the mid-single-digit range [2]. - Investors are showing considerable interest in small- and mid-cap stocks like Ulvac and JEOL, which are currently lagging behind larger companies [2]. Back-End Equipment - Demand for AI-related equipment remains strong, particularly for Advantest, but investor expectations for FY3/27 are already high, aligning closely with estimates [3]. - For Disco, there is skepticism regarding significant increases in shipment levels from the current quarterly level of approximately ¥110 billion, leading to lower expectations for FY3/27 earnings [3]. - Interest in Tokyo Seimitsu is noted, but many investors believe that substantial margin improvements are necessary for the share price to rise further [3]. NAND Market - Many investors are optimistic about Kioxia Holdings, despite the Neutral rating, with expectations for a sharp price increase in Q4 FY3/26 due to rising server demand amid limited supply [4]. Investment Ratings and Price Targets - Tokyo Electron: Buy, with a target price of ¥43,000, driven by growth prospects in DRAM investment [8]. - Disco: Buy, target price of ¥64,000, based on multiple growth drivers [9]. - Ebara: Buy, target price of ¥5,200, expecting CMP-led earnings growth [9]. - Ulvac: Buy, target price of ¥8,400, with expectations for orders to exceed forecasts [9]. - Advantest: Neutral, with a target price of ¥22,800, facing high investor expectations [9]. - Kioxia Holdings: Neutral, target price of ¥11,400, with volatile capacity utilization trends [9]. - Tokyo Seimitsu: Sell, target price of ¥8,700, requiring significant semiconductor order growth for price improvement [9]. Risks and Considerations - Risks for companies include potential slowdowns in AI-related demand, tightening of export controls, and fluctuations in customer capital expenditure appetite [9]. - The semiconductor industry faces challenges such as prolonged inventory adjustments and competitive pressures from Chinese manufacturers [9]. Conclusion - The semiconductor industry is experiencing a positive shift in investor sentiment, particularly for front-end equipment manufacturers, while caution remains regarding valuations and potential risks in the back-end and NAND markets [1][2][4].