全球主题：以主题视角看世界-预测、争议与结构性变革-Global Thematics-The World Through a Thematic Lens Predictions, Debates and Structural Change

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry and Company Overview - The conference call focuses on thematic investing strategies and predictions for 2026, led by Morgan Stanley Research, emphasizing four key themes: Tech Diffusion, The Future of Energy, The Multipolar World, and Societal Shifts [3][22]. Core Themes and Predictions 1. Key Themes for 2026: - Tech Diffusion: Continued acceleration in AI capabilities and adoption across various sectors [3][35]. - The Future of Energy: Anticipated growth in energy demand, particularly driven by AI infrastructure, with a projected 10% increase in US energy consumption over the next decade [36]. - The Multipolar World: Shift towards localized supply chains and reduced dependency on global trade, with significant implications for national security and economic policies [32][34]. - Societal Shifts: Evolution of the Longevity theme to encompass broader societal impacts, including AI-driven job displacement and changing consumer preferences [4][38]. 2. Performance Metrics: - In 2025, thematic stock categories achieved an average price increase of 38%, outperforming the S&P 500 and MSCI World by 16% and 27%, respectively [8][23]. 3. Thematic Predictions for 2026: - Non-linear improvements in large language models (LLMs) and a systematic shortage of computational power due to rising demand [15][16]. - An aggressive US policy agenda aimed at reducing dependency on China for critical materials and enhancing domestic manufacturing capabilities [18]. - Increased focus on energy costs and their implications for data center growth and local energy policies [18]. Additional Insights - AI and Employment: The theme of Societal Shifts includes a focus on re-skilling initiatives and policy interventions to address job losses due to AI adoption [21][38]. - Investment Opportunities: The intersection of themes presents new investment opportunities, particularly in sectors that align with the evolving geopolitical landscape and technological advancements [39]. - Regional Performance: APAC stocks have shown strong thematic alpha across various categories, while North American stocks excelled in AI and defense-related themes [26]. Conclusion - Morgan Stanley's thematic investing framework is positioned as a powerful tool for identifying attractive investment opportunities amid market volatility, with a comprehensive focus on the interplay between technology, energy, geopolitics, and societal changes [3][8][22].