腾讯-2025 年第四季度前瞻：宏观放缓背景下表现稳健

Tencent Holdings Ltd. 4Q25 Earnings Call Summary Company Overview - Company: Tencent Holdings Ltd. - Industry: Internet and Other Services in Asia Pacific - Date of Call: January 18, 2026 Key Financial Metrics - Revenue Growth: Projected revenue increase of 12% YoY, with non-IFRS operating profit (OP) up 14% [1][9] - Value-Added Services (VAS): Revenue expected to rise by 12.0% YoY, with online games growing by 16.7% [2][9] - Marketing Services: Anticipated growth of 18.5% YoY, driven by AI ad-tech upgrades [3][9] - FinTech and Business Services (FBS): Expected to grow by 7.5% YoY, impacted by weaker commercial payments [4][9] Revenue Breakdown - VAS Revenue: Estimated at Rmb 88.469 billion for 4Q25, with online games contributing Rmb 57.433 billion [12] - Domestic Games: Expected to grow by 12.5% YoY - International Games: Expected to grow by 25.4% YoY - Marketing Services Revenue: Projected at Rmb 41.488 billion, reflecting an 18.5% increase [12] - FBS Revenue: Expected at Rmb 60.336 billion, a 7.5% increase YoY [12] Profitability Metrics - Gross Profit: Expected to be Rmb 105.653 billion, with a gross margin of 54.8% [12] - Operating Profit (Non-IFRS): Projected at Rmb 67.790 billion, with a non-IFRS operating margin of 35.2% [12] - Net Profit (Non-IFRS): Expected to be Rmb 61.160 billion, reflecting a 10.6% increase YoY [12] Market Position and Strategy - Price Target: Maintained at HK$735, implying a 19% upside from the current price of HK$617.50 [5][7] - Valuation Approach: Price target derived from a discounted cash flow (DCF) model, with a 10% discount rate and 3% terminal growth rate [16][19] - Competitive Position: Tencent is viewed as a leading player in China's online consumer market, with strong revenue growth and earnings visibility [26][27] Risks and Considerations - Macro Environment: The company is navigating a macroeconomic slowdown, but remains resilient compared to peers [1][5] - Regulatory Risks: Rising competitive and regulatory risks in the industry are acknowledged [5][26] - Investment in AI: Initial investments in AI are expected to narrow operating leverage, leading to a slight reduction in non-IFRS OP estimates for 2025-27 by 1-2% [5][9] Future Outlook - Growth Projections: Total revenue is expected to grow at a CAGR of 9.1% from 2025 to 2030 [25] - Earnings Visibility: Continued focus on monetization across all products and services, particularly in mobile games and fintech [24][26] Conclusion - Tencent Holdings Ltd. is positioned to maintain growth despite macroeconomic challenges, with a strong focus on AI and digital services. The company’s strategic investments and market leadership in various segments provide a solid foundation for future performance.