当极端天气按下大宗商品-波动键

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The records discuss the impact of extreme weather events on various commodity markets, particularly focusing on agricultural products, natural gas, and metals due to the ongoing weak La Niña phenomenon and its expected transition to neutral conditions by March 2026 [1][2][4]. Key Insights and Arguments Weather Patterns and Their Impacts - The weak La Niña event is expected to end in March 2026, transitioning to neutral conditions, with a rising probability of El Niño starting in July 2026, reaching nearly 60% by November [1][4]. - Global warming is anticipated to prevent widespread cold winters, although localized cold spells may occur [2]. - The solar cycle's downward trend may increase the risk of extreme weather events over the next three to five years, with frequent switches between La Niña and El Niño phenomena [2]. Agricultural Market Impacts - Soybeans: Increased expectations for South American soybean production, with U.S. soybean prices projected to remain between 1,000 and 1,150 cents per bushel, unlikely to break the upper limit [1][5]. - Palm Oil: Minimal impact from weak La Niña on palm oil production, with Malaysian production recovering. Short-term bullish outlook for palm oil prices in the first half of 2026, but potential reductions in palm fruit production could occur if a strong El Niño develops [1][5]. - Wheat: Delayed sowing in domestic wheat may lead to growth pressures, with increased risks of cold spells and spring droughts. This could elevate new wheat prices in April-May 2026, potentially resonating with corn prices, which are expected to trend upward [1][5]. Natural Gas Market Dynamics - The U.S. natural gas market is influenced by temperature fluctuations, with November 2026 expected to be cold but warming in December, leading to significant consumption volatility [6]. - European natural gas inventories are low, with actual consumption showing a year-on-year decline, leading to downward pressure on prices [6]. - A global LNG supply increase is anticipated in 2026, with new projects in the U.S. and Qatar expected to support U.S. natural gas markets [3][7]. Metal Markets and Weather Effects - The La Niña phenomenon is affecting black metal markets through supply and demand dynamics. Warmer winters are reducing heating and electricity demand, leading to a decline in coal prices [9]. - Brazilian iron ore shipments are expected to continue increasing, exerting pressure on iron ore prices [9]. - The impact of extreme weather on non-ferrous metals includes risks from heavy rainfall and drought, affecting mining operations in regions like Indonesia and Chile [10]. Additional Important Insights - The transition to neutral weather conditions post-March 2026 may lead to increased volatility in commodity prices due to the unpredictable nature of weather patterns [4]. - The interplay between agricultural and energy markets, particularly in terms of pricing and production, is highlighted, with potential for significant price movements based on weather-related supply changes [5][6]. - The need for monitoring extreme weather impacts on mining operations and supply chains is emphasized, particularly in resource-rich regions vulnerable to climate variability [10].