存储-超级周期-跟踪调研-26年供需景气度将如何继续演绎

Summary of Conference Call on Storage Industry Trends Industry Overview - The conference call focused on the storage industry, particularly the demand and supply dynamics for DRAM and NAND products through 2026 [1][2]. Key Insights Server Storage Demand - Server storage demand is expected to continue strong growth, with servers accounting for 30% of overall storage demand. This growth is driven by AI server markets and overbooking by major cloud service providers like Google, AWS, Meta, and Microsoft, indicating high future demand expectations [2][3]. Mobile Market Dynamics - The mobile market is projected to see sustained growth in the first and second quarters of 2026, driven by new product launches such as iPhone 17, Xiaomi 17, and Huawei Max 6. Increased single-device storage capacity is expected to offset declines in shipment volumes [1][5][16]. PC and Notebook Market - The PC and notebook markets are relatively weak, with DDR4 prices affected by factory shutdowns. This segment accounts for less than 30% of the overall storage market, limiting its impact on total demand [1][6]. Inventory Levels - Current inventory levels are not expected to rise excessively before the third quarter, with DRAM inventory at approximately 1.5-2 months and NAND inventory at 2-2.5 months, compared to a normal balance of 2.5-3 months [10][37]. Price Trends - In Q1 2026, DRAM prices increased by 52% and NAND prices by 47%, reflecting tight supply-demand conditions. Price increases are expected to continue into Q2, with projections of over 30% growth [3][22][34]. AI Applications - AI-related applications are experiencing robust growth, with no current concerns about entering a bubble phase. The demand for storage related to AI is expected to remain strong at least until 2027 [11][12]. Automotive Electronics - The automotive electronics sector, including smart cockpit and autonomous driving applications, is growing rapidly at a rate of about 20%, although it only represents 7-8% of the overall storage market [4]. Future Capacity and Supply - By the end of 2026, an additional 300,000 DRAM and 350,000 NAND units are expected to be added, but actual supply may only reach 1.9-2 million DRAM and 2.2 million NAND due to the release timeline of new capacities [3][27][28]. Additional Insights Consumer Electronics - Despite a slight decline in mobile shipments, the average storage capacity per device is increasing, contributing to overall demand growth [16][17]. Cost Management in Mobile Manufacturing - Mobile manufacturers are expected to manage rising costs by increasing product prices or optimizing material costs, ensuring they do not incur losses [19][20]. Market Share Dynamics - The server and mobile markets are expected to each account for about one-third of total demand, with servers increasing their share from 33% to 35% by 2026 [26]. Technological Upgrades - The storage chip industry is undergoing significant technological upgrades, transitioning to smaller process nodes and increasing layer counts, which will enhance capacity but may have limited overall growth due to previous upgrades [31][32]. Competitive Landscape - Companies like Longsys and Yangtze Memory Technologies are gaining market share in the mid-range product segment, but their impact on the high-end market remains limited due to technological gaps [33]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, highlighting the trends and expectations for the storage industry through 2026.