2025年宏观经济回顾暨2026年宏观展望

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The macroeconomic outlook for China in 2026 is projected to maintain a growth target of around 5% to achieve the goal of reaching a per capita GDP comparable to that of moderately developed countries by 2035, requiring an average growth rate of approximately 5.5% over the next 11 years [1][4]. Core Economic Insights - Despite a slight decline in global economic growth forecasts, China's external demand remains resilient, benefiting from diversified export markets and improved product competitiveness. However, the difficulty in expanding export shares is increasing, and the contribution of goods and services trade to GDP may decline [1][5]. - Domestic demand faces challenges, particularly due to ongoing weakness in real estate investment, while manufacturing investment is expected to be a highlight, driven by the "15th Five-Year Plan" [1][6][7]. - Consumer spending shows resilience but remains overall unsatisfactory, with a rapid decline in government consumption expenditure. Fiscal expansion may help alleviate this issue, as consumer spending is influenced by income and wealth, which have been negatively impacted by the weak real estate market [1][8][9]. Important Economic Indicators - In 2025, China's GDP growth rate was 5%, with a quarter-on-quarter increase of 1.2% in Q4, slightly up from 1.1% in Q3. However, nominal growth remains low at 3.8%, indicating persistent deflationary pressures [2]. - The contribution of goods and services trade to GDP reached 1.64 percentage points, accounting for 32.7%, marking a historical high, while capital formation's contribution was only 0.77 percentage points, the lowest since 1998 [2]. Consumer Behavior and Fiscal Policy - The central government's plan to increase urban and rural residents' income is expected to be announced during the upcoming "Two Sessions," which could significantly impact domestic demand and counteract deflation [10]. - The decline in government consumption expenditure, which constitutes about 16% of GDP, has been rapid, necessitating fiscal expansion to address this issue [8]. Inflation and Monetary Policy - Although China faces deflationary pressures, the GDP deflator index showed improvement in Q4, and CPI rebounded mainly due to base effects. However, without strong policy measures, consumer confidence may not recover, and prolonged deflation could affect corporate profits and household income [3][11]. - Recent adjustments to the central bank's structural monetary policy tools have had limited market impact, highlighting the need for fiscal policy to play a more significant role in stimulating demand and combating deflation [12]. Global Economic Context - The uncertainty surrounding the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, influenced by political factors, has led to fluctuations in interest rate expectations and a weaker dollar, which may benefit the Chinese stock market amid global capital reallocation [3][14][15]. - The Chinese stock market is expected to perform well due to a favorable economic growth outlook, with the potential for increased capital inflows as the RMB appreciates [15]. Bond Market Opportunities - The bond market is anticipated to present opportunities primarily in a range-bound environment, with yields potentially declining under renewed deflationary pressures and rising when such pressures ease [16][17].