未知机构：1月第二周高频数据回顾出行和消费1月上旬以旧换新相关商品-20260120

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview Automotive and Consumer Sector - Sales of trade-in related products remained weak in early January - From January 1 to January 11, national retail sales of passenger cars decreased by 32% year-on-year [1] - As of January 9, sales of eight categories of home appliances fell by 41.9% year-on-year [1] Production and Construction - Production remained stable in the second week of January, with attention on the impact of the upcoming Spring Festival on production growth - The utilization rate of coking capacity was 77.5%, slightly down from 77.7% previously - The apparent consumption of major steel products was 9.377 million tons this week, up from 9.071 million tons previously [2] Real Estate - New and second-hand housing transaction volumes were weak in the second week of January - From January 10 to January 16, the average daily transaction area of commercial housing in 30 major cities was 195,000 square meters, roughly unchanged from the previous week but down 43.3% year-on-year - In third-tier cities, the year-on-year decline was 50% [3] Trade and Exports - In the second week of January, shipping rates from Shanghai to the East Coast of the U.S. increased by 1.2%, while rates to the West Coast decreased by 1.1% - The export freight index (CCFI) rose by 1.3% week-on-week, while the SCFI fell by 4.4% - In the first ten days of January, South Korea's export value decreased by 2.3% year-on-year, and import value fell by 4.5% [4] Economic Forecast - GDP growth for December 2025 is estimated at 4.6% based on statistical bureau data, while January 2026 is estimated at 4.3% based on high-frequency data - The impact of the Spring Festival is expected to lead to a significant increase in year-on-year data in the future [4] Liquidity - In the second week of January, funding rates showed a marginal increase, with the average weekly DR007 rate at 1.51%, up from 1.45% - The net financing of government bonds was -233.64 billion yuan, while net financing of credit bonds was 49.04 billion yuan [5] Prices - In the second week of January, commodity prices showed divergence, with coking coal and coke prices decreasing by 2.1% and 1.8% respectively - Food prices for pork, eggs, vegetables, and fruits increased by 0.6%, 3.3%, 0.2%, and 1.9% respectively [6] U.S. High-Frequency Data - In the second week of January, U.S. consumer spending continued to grow - The Redbook commercial retail sales increased by 5.7% year-on-year, down from 7.1% previously - TSA checkpoint numbers increased by 3.8% year-on-year, up from 2.1% [7]