未知机构：SAF行业点评供需错配的超级周期重点推荐复盘与展望从政策-20260120

Industry Analysis: SAF Sector Insights Industry Overview - The SAF (Sustainable Aviation Fuel) industry is experiencing a significant shift from "policy-driven" to "hard gap-driven" dynamics, indicating a transition in market drivers [1] - The EU's ReFuelEU Aviation regulation, effective in 2025, mandates the incorporation of 2%, 5%, and 70% sustainable aviation fuel in aviation fuel by 2025, 2030, and 2035 respectively, translating to a demand of 140 million, 350 million, and 5 billion tons [1] Key Insights - The SAF prices have surged over 50% year-on-year due to supply chain disruptions, leading to a widening price gap with upstream raw materials like UCO (Used Cooking Oil) [1] - Despite a potential decline in short-term demand post-2026, the UK’s blending target of 3.6% and Singapore's taxation policies are expected to sustain global production capacity at 4-5 million tons, with an effective capacity of 2.4 million tons, which still falls short of the global demand of 2.8 million tons (Europe 1.8 million + USA 600,000 + South Korea and others 400,000) [1][2] Profitability and Capacity Insights - The industry logic has shifted from mere policy expectations to realizing excess profits driven by scarce refining capacity [2] - The profit distribution within the supply chain is being restructured, emphasizing that companies with existing or upcoming SAF production capacity will enjoy the highest processing profits, while those with compliant and traceable UCO resources will benefit from compliance premiums amid global trade barriers [2] Major Suppliers and Capacities - Key SAF suppliers and their capacities include: - Jiaao Environmental: 370,000 tons (with an additional 500,000 tons under construction) - Longkun Environment: 170,000 tons (planning to expand to 420,000 tons) - Sinopec: Zhenhai Refining 100,000 tons - Haineng Energy: Shandong Sanju 50,000 tons - Overseas supplier Neste: over 500,000 tons - Unlisted companies: Junheng Bio (200,000 tons) and Yigao Environmental (200,000 tons) [2]