中国经济 - 前置资本开支支撑一季度；需求仍偏疲软-China Economics-Front-loaded Capex to Prop Q1; Demand Still Thin

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on the China Economics sector, particularly analyzing the economic indicators and trends in the Asia Pacific region [1] Core Insights and Arguments - Economic Performance: In 4Q25, real GDP softened to 4.5% YoY, attributed to weaker consumption and capital expenditure (capex) offsetting improved exports [9] - Industrial Production: Year-on-year industrial production increased by 5.2%, driven by export strength and quarter-end window dressing [2] - Retail Sales: Retail sales hit a post-COVID low, declining further by 0.9% YoY, reflecting a high base and negative wealth effects from the ongoing housing downturn [2] - Fixed Asset Investment (FAI): There was a significant decline in FAI, down 3.8% YoY, which may have exaggerated the perception of investment weakness [6][9] - Infrastructure Push: Despite the decline in FAI, there is evidence of an accelerated infrastructure push since December, indicated by stabilized upstream production and stronger-than-seasonal cement shipments [3][9] - GDP Deflator: The GDP deflator remained subdued at -0.7% YoY in 4Q, compared to -1% in 3Q, contributing to a nominal GDP growth of 3.8% YoY [2] Outlook - The outlook suggests that real GDP could be pulled towards 5% YoY in 1Q26 due to front-loaded infrastructure spending. However, this momentum is expected to be unsustainable due to ongoing weaknesses in consumption and the property sector [4][9] Additional Important Points - Government Bond Issuance: There has been strong government bond issuance year-to-date, indicating a push for infrastructure investment [9] - Sector-Specific Performance: The manufacturing sector saw a decline in FAI by 10.6% YoY, while infrastructure investment dropped by 16.0% YoY [6] - Property Sector: The property sector continues to be a weak link, with property sales down 17.6% YoY and new starts declining by 18.7% [6] This summary encapsulates the key findings and insights from the conference call, highlighting the current state and outlook of the Chinese economy and its sectors.