中国免税-海南免税专家电话会要点：政策放宽与消费券发放推动免税销售额强劲增长-China Duty Free_ Hainan Duty Free Expert Call Takeaways_ Strong DFS sales momentum on policy relaxation and consumption voucher issuance

Summary of Hainan Duty Free Expert Call Industry Overview - The focus of the call was on the travel retail and duty-free (DFS) industry in Hainan, discussing sales trends, growth drivers, pricing competition, and market outlook through 2026 [2][3]. Key Points on Hainan DFS Sales Trends - Hainan's DFS sales began to recover towards the end of Q3 2025, showing a year-over-year increase of +3% in September and +13% in October, followed by +27% in November and +17% in December after policy relaxation on November 1st [3]. - The recovery was attributed to: - Reduced diversion of travelers to overseas destinations, particularly due to political tensions affecting travel to Japan [3]. - Strong sales of 3C products, especially the new iPhone launched in October 2025, leading to a significant increase in per-shopper spending, which rose by +41% in November and +21% in December [3]. - Government-issued consumption vouchers and DFS operators' sales promotions during peak seasons [3]. Future Outlook for 2026 - The expert expressed cautious optimism for continued growth in Hainan's DFS sales, anticipating healthy inbound travel and increased spending on high-ticket items [4]. - However, there are concerns regarding the potential slowdown in the issuance of consumption vouchers and limited sales boosts from Hainan residents due to recent policy changes [7]. Competitive Landscape - The competitive environment in Hainan remains stable, with China Tourism Group Duty Free (CTGDF) expected to maintain a dominant market share of 70-80% [8]. - The expert noted a low likelihood of new DFS entrants in the next 2-3 years, and CTGDF is focusing on product variety rather than aggressive pricing strategies [8]. Sales Data Insights - Hainan DFS sales data indicated that Hainan residents contributed only Rmb11 million in sales, accounting for less than 1% of total sales, with a much lower average spending of Rmb2,500 per shopper [7]. - The average spending per shopper in Hainan DFS increased significantly, reaching Rmb7,218 in November 2025, compared to Rmb5,000-6,000 in the previous year [3]. Additional Observations - The expert highlighted that the take rate by Shanghai Airport on its renewed contract varies by product category, with food products at the lower end (8%) and cosmetics and tobacco at the higher end (up to 24%) [8]. - CTGDF's share price has rebounded sharply, reflecting strong sales performance in Hainan, with a focus on margin trends in upcoming results [9].