中国房地产-新房销售重回 2000 年代水平；库存创纪录下降；政策助力成交量-China Property-Dec NBS Back in the 2000s; Record Inv. Drop; Policies to Help Volume

Summary of China Property Market Conference Call Industry Overview - Industry: China Property Market - Key Data: - Real Estate Investment (REI) recorded a significant decline of -35.8% year-on-year in December, marking the largest drop since December 2009 [1] - New home prices decreased by -3.0% year-on-year in December, while secondary home prices fell by -6.1% year-on-year [1] - The overall residential sales volume dropped by -26% year-on-year in December [1] Core Insights - Investment Trends: - REI for FY25 is projected at Rmb8.3 trillion, a -17.2% year-on-year decline, falling below residential sales of Rmb8.4 trillion [2] - New housing starts are at a 21-year low, with 588 million sqm started, down -20% year-on-year [2] - The area under construction decreased by -10%, reaching 6.6 billion sqm [2] - Market Conditions: - The market is expected to face a structural decline into 2026 unless liquidity improves, with anticipated REI dropping by -13% year-on-year [3] - National sales are projected to decline by -11% year-on-year, with new home average selling prices expected to fall by -3% year-on-year [3] - Policy Impacts: - Recent government policies aim to stabilize the market, including a reduction in the down payment for commercial properties from 50% to 30% and extending tax refunds for home sellers [4] - The easing measures are seen as risk control rather than a direct boost to the market [4] Additional Important Points - Sales and Earnings Outlook: - Weak sales and earnings downgrades are anticipated, with a potential short-lived rebound in share prices driven by policy expectations [5] - The luxury retail sector showed positive same-store sales growth in Q4, but December results were below expectations [5] - Land Sales: - Land sales in 300 cities decreased by -9% in area and -23% in value, reaching an 18-year low [2] - The government land revenue for the first 11 months of 2025 was down -11% [1] - Macro Economic Indicators: - China's GDP growth for FY25 is projected at +5.0% year-on-year, with a slight deceleration in retail sales growth to +0.9% year-on-year in December [1] This summary encapsulates the critical insights and data points from the conference call regarding the current state and future outlook of the China property market.