中国基础材料监测 - 2026 年 1 月：大宗商品高价压制需求-China Basic Materials Monitor_ January 2026_ suppressing demand under high commodity prices

Summary of China Basic Materials Monitor - January 2026 Industry Overview - The report focuses on the China Basic Materials industry, highlighting the impact of high commodity prices on demand and supply dynamics across various sectors. Key Points Demand Trends - End-user orderbooks are mostly in line with past seasonal trends as of mid-January, with solar and machinery sectors showing weakness while battery demand remains strong [1] - The surge in metal prices has led to notable changes in downstream demand across sectors such as consumer electronics, hardware manufacturing, copper cables, and aluminum in industrial and construction areas, resulting in weaker or delayed orderbooks and rising metal inventories [1] - High-frequency data indicates that in the first two weeks of January, Chinese demand is down 1-9% year-over-year (YoY) for cement and construction steel, and 3-10% YoY for aluminum and copper, while flat steel demand is up 3% YoY [1] Supply Dynamics - Supply conditions remain heterogeneous, with consistent feedback on cement capacity cleaning up and ongoing capacity discipline in coal, but lackluster control in steel production [1] - Margin and pricing for steel, copper, aluminum, and lithium have improved, while cement and coal prices have remained stable [1] Sector-Specific Insights - Cement: Demand is lower, with a 1-9% YoY decline noted [1] - Aluminum and Copper: Demand has deteriorated significantly amid high prices, with a 3-10% YoY decline reported [1] - Steel: Margins have improved, but production control remains weak [1] - Battery Materials: Strong demand persists, leading to price hikes in solar modules, AC, LFP cathodes, and battery cells [1] Producer Feedback - A proprietary survey indicates a mixed month-over-month (MoM) trend in forward orderbooks, with 19% of respondents reporting a pickup in January for downstream sectors and 6% for basic materials [2] Additional Observations - The report notes that in regions with strong demand or better supply structures, price hikes have begun in specific materials, indicating a potential shift in market dynamics [1] - The overall sentiment reflects caution due to high commodity prices suppressing demand, particularly in sectors sensitive to price fluctuations [1] Conclusion - The China Basic Materials industry is currently experiencing a complex interplay of high commodity prices affecting demand and supply across various sectors. While some areas like battery materials show resilience, others like aluminum and copper are facing significant demand challenges. The mixed feedback from producers suggests a cautious outlook moving forward, with potential opportunities in regions with strong demand dynamics.