投资者- 2026 展望：偏好 AI 优于非 AI；逻辑芯片与存储芯片均具吸引力-Investor Presentation-2026 Outlook Prefer AI to Non-AI; Both Logic and Memory Are Attractive

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The semiconductor industry is experiencing a shift towards AI-driven demand, with a preference for AI semiconductors over non-AI counterparts. This trend is expected to continue into 2026, with both logic and memory sectors being attractive for investment [6][10][87]. Key Companies Mentioned - TSMC: Identified as a top pick in the AI semiconductor space, with expected revenue CAGR of 60% from AI semis between 2024 and 2029 [6][33]. - SMIC: Mentioned as a significant player in the semiconductor industry [6]. - MediaTek, Alchip, GUC, Winbond, Phison, Nanya Tech: Other notable companies highlighted for their roles in the semiconductor landscape [6]. Core Insights - Demand Drivers: - Tech inflation is anticipated to impact demand due to rising costs in wafers, OSAT, and memory, creating margin pressures for chip designers [6]. - AI cannibalization is a concern, as AI technologies may replace certain human jobs, affecting overall demand [6]. - The proliferation of generative AI is expected to drive demand across various verticals, including robotics and AI glasses [6]. - Market Dynamics: - The semiconductor supply chain is prioritizing AI semiconductors, leading to shortages in non-AI semiconductors [6]. - The memory sector's stock prices are seen as leading indicators for logic semiconductors, with an attractive industry view on Greater China technology semiconductors [16]. Financial Metrics and Valuation - TSMC: - Current share price is 1,760 TWD with a target price of 2,088 TWD, indicating a 19% upside potential [8]. - Expected P/E ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 26.6, 18.9, and 15.7 respectively, with EPS growth rates of 46%, 40%, and 21% [8]. - SMIC: - Current share price is 77.0 HKD with a target price of 80.0 HKD, indicating a 4% upside potential [8]. - Expected P/E ratios are not meaningful (NM) due to negative growth projections [8]. Potential Risks - Supply Chain Issues: The semiconductor supply chain is facing challenges, including inventory management and the prioritization of AI semiconductors, which could lead to shortages in non-AI products [6][14]. - Economic Factors: Rising costs and inflation in the tech sector may impact overall demand and profitability for semiconductor companies [6]. Additional Insights - Capex Trends: Major cloud service providers (CSPs) are expected to increase capital expenditures significantly, with a projected 65% year-over-year increase in Q3 2025 [52]. - AI Semiconductor Market Size: The global semiconductor market size is projected to reach $1 trillion by 2030, driven largely by cloud AI [85]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights and data points from the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current state and future outlook of the semiconductor industry, particularly in relation to AI technologies.