未知机构：昨夜美国市场上演股债汇三杀一幕经典的避险场景却带着全然不同的底色-20260121

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The current market dynamics are influenced by a shift from inflation and central bank policies to fiscal and credit concerns, particularly highlighted by the recent performance of U.S. and Japanese bonds [1][2][4]. Core Insights and Arguments - Japan's 40-year government bond yield has surpassed 4%, marking the first time in over 30 years, which has significant implications for global financial markets [2][3]. - The combination of high government debt and high interest rates in major developed economies, including the U.S. and Japan, is creating a precarious situation for fiscal sustainability [4]. - The market is increasingly worried about the astronomical interest payments on government debt, leading to three potential outcomes: fiscal tightening, continued large-scale borrowing, or central banks resorting to debt monetization [4][5]. - The recent sell-off in long-term U.S. Treasuries reflects a loss of confidence, as institutional investors like the Danish pension fund have opted to liquidate their holdings [6][8][9]. - The systemic rise in risk-free rates is negatively impacting the valuation models of all risk assets, leading to a broader market correction [11]. Additional Important Content - Gold prices have surged to historical highs, driven not by traditional inflation concerns but by fears regarding sovereign credit and the weakening of the dollar, indicating a shift towards "de-dollarization" [12][13]. - The current market environment is characterized by a transition to a new era, driven by debt cycles, geopolitical tensions, and a restructuring of monetary order [14][15]. - The exit of Japan from its Yield Curve Control (YCC) policy and subsequent interest rate hikes signal a reduction in the motivation for Japanese investors to hold foreign bonds, particularly U.S. Treasuries, potentially leading to a capital outflow and further imbalance in the global bond market [17]. - The correlation between asset classes is changing, with both stocks and bonds experiencing declines, and the sources of risk are shifting from economic cycles to political decisions [18]. - Investors are advised to reassess what constitutes a "safe asset," as long-term government bonds may become a source of volatility rather than stability, emphasizing the need for assets with strong cash flow and real repayment attributes [18].