未知机构：国泰周论波动不改上行趋势贵金属贵金属价格震荡走高波动加-20260121

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Industry Overview - Precious Metals: Prices are experiencing fluctuations but are trending upwards. [1] - Copper: Short-term sentiment is volatile, but long-term fundamentals remain intact. [6] - Aluminum: Prices are maintaining high levels amidst mixed macroeconomic signals. [9] - Tin: Prices are expected to fluctuate due to supply and demand changes. [11] - Lithium: Inventory is decreasing, and export tax policies may lead to front-loaded demand. [13] - Rare Earths: Prices are recovering due to policy impacts and pre-holiday inventory demand. [16] Core Insights and Arguments - Gold: The rise in central bank gold purchases and gold ETF holdings is expected to support gold prices through 2026. [2][4] - Silver: A decline in London silver leasing rates is noted, while U.S. silver inventories are decreasing rapidly. [5] - Copper Demand: Despite short-term pressure on copper prices due to macroeconomic adjustments and Nvidia's data center demand corrections, tight supply conditions and ongoing demand from AI and power grid construction are expected to support prices. The State Grid's projected fixed asset investment of 4 trillion yuan during the 14th Five-Year Plan represents a 40% increase from the previous plan. [7][8] - Aluminum Supply and Demand: New domestic electrolytic aluminum projects are ramping up production, while alumina prices are declining, leading to inventory pressures. The upcoming Spring Festival is expected to weaken demand, with aluminum ingot inventories increasing significantly. [9][10] - Tin Market Dynamics: Recent high prices have led to increased production in Myanmar and higher production quotas in Indonesia, but demand is being suppressed by these high prices. [12] - Lithium Market Outlook: The reduction in lithium inventory and the anticipated decrease in export tax for battery products may lead to stronger demand in the off-season. [14][15] - Rare Earths Investment Value: The strategic importance of rare earths continues to be highlighted, with a positive outlook on their investment value. [18] Additional Important Information - Market Sentiment: The overall market sentiment is influenced by macroeconomic adjustments and expectations surrounding the new Federal Reserve Chair. [2][4] - Aluminum Processing Rates: The processing rate for aluminum products has slightly increased, indicating some resilience in the industry despite high prices. [9]