未知机构：天风化工从供给过剩到稀缺定价当前位置化工逻辑有何变化-20260121

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Industry Overview - The basic chemical industry is currently experiencing a price suppression due to mismatched existing production capacity, with overall profitability at a low stage. The PE ratio is at the historical 66th percentile and the PB ratio at the historical 48th percentile, while the overall ROE level remains at a historical low as of Q3 2025, showing no signs of improvement [1][1][1]. Profitability Outlook - A supply-demand rebalancing is anticipated, with a supply inflection point already evident in June 2025. It is expected that profitability will improve significantly between 2026 and 2027, as the industry is projected to emerge from its current low profitability phase [1][1][1]. Policy and Regulatory Changes - The dual carbon (双碳) policy is identified as a critical long-term growth driver for the chemical industry in 2026 and beyond. The shift from energy consumption to carbon emission controls will lead to significant structural adjustments in the industry, with a focus on raw material carbon emissions as a key differentiator [2][2][2]. Investment Trends - Investment approvals for high-carbon industries, including chemicals, are expected to tighten in the short term due to the dual carbon context. This regulatory environment may create a long-term ceiling on supply, which could facilitate a recovery in corporate profitability over time [2][2][2]. Carbon Emission Regulations - 2026 is highlighted as a pivotal year for the establishment of carbon emission regulations, including the development of foundational frameworks, databases, and indicators to prepare for carbon trading in 2027 [2][2][2]. Competitive Landscape - The dual carbon initiative is expected to increase investment intensity and technological differentiation among companies. Leading firms with high-quality, scarce, and green production capacities are likely to emerge as dominant players during the upcoming transformation in the chemical sector [4][4][4]. Recommended Companies - Key recommendations include Wanhua Chemical, Hualu Hengsheng, Yangnong Chemical, Juhua Co., and Xin'an Chemical. Additional related companies mentioned are Yuntu Holdings, Xingfa Group, Luxi Chemical, Huafeng Chemical, and Chuanheng Co. [5][5][5].