风-光-储-电网年度投资策略

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The global energy storage market is experiencing rapid growth, with an expected new installed capacity of 233 GWh by 2026 and a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) exceeding 37% over the next three years. Independent storage accounts for approximately 78% of this capacity, primarily located in Ningxia and Shanxi [1][8][9]. - North America’s AIDC (Artificial Intelligence Data Center) storage demand is projected to surge from 8.9 GWh in 2025 to 190 GWh by 2030, with a remarkable CAGR of 84%. The green electricity direct connection model is favored for its quick delivery and economic benefits [1][12]. - The European energy storage market is driven by both large-scale and commercial storage, with an anticipated overall installed capacity of 29.7 GWh by 2025, representing a 30% year-on-year increase, and expected to reach 118 GWh by 2029 [1][13]. - Domestic grid investment is expected to exceed 1 trillion yuan annually, while international investment is projected to reach 4 trillion yuan. The acceleration of ultra-high voltage projects in 2026 will enhance the main distribution network's performance [1][3]. Investment Recommendations - The preferred investment order in the wind, solar, storage, and grid sectors is: storage, grid, wind, and solar. Storage is primarily driven by strong domestic and international policies and market demand [2]. - Large-scale storage is identified as a core growth area, with significant projects expected to materialize in North America and Europe within the next 3-5 years [2]. Key Developments in Specific Sectors Energy Storage - The internal rate of return (IRR) for independent storage remains attractive, with a projected IRR of 18% under standard assumptions [1][9]. - The demand for commercial and industrial storage is shifting from traditional pricing arbitrage to a multi-revenue model, including spot market trading and capacity compensation [10]. Wind Power - The wind power industry is expected to maintain a favorable competitive landscape, with a continued trend of rising volume and price in 2026. Both offshore and overseas wind power markets present significant opportunities [1][6]. - The global wind power sector is projected to grow at a CAGR of 27% from 2025 to 2030, with China and Europe leading the way [18]. Solar Power - The solar industry is focusing on countering internal competition and the impact of rising component prices, with some prices reaching 0.8 yuan per watt. Technological breakthroughs such as perovskite and reduced silver usage are expected to accelerate cost reductions [4][7]. - The cancellation of export tax rebates in April 2026 is anticipated to increase export costs for companies, potentially reducing internal competition among Chinese firms [22]. Emerging Markets and Global Trends - Emerging markets, particularly in Australia, are receiving policy support for renewable energy and storage, with a target of 82% renewable energy by 2030 [15]. - Chinese companies are accelerating their international expansion, with expected shipments of energy storage systems reaching 400 GWh by 2025, a 60% increase year-on-year [16]. Conclusion - The energy sector is poised for significant growth driven by technological advancements, favorable policies, and increasing demand across various markets. Key players in storage, wind, and solar sectors are recommended for investment consideration, particularly those with strong international expansion strategies.