生物油专家交流

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the Sustainable Aviation Alternative Fuels (SAAS) and biodiesel industry, highlighting the potential for biodiesel (including first-generation and HVO) to become more popular than SAAS by 2026 due to economic conditions in Europe [2][3]. Core Insights and Arguments - SAAS Demand and Economic Impact: The overall volume of SAAS in 2026 may not meet expectations, with a 6% blending target achievable depending on the European economic situation [2][3]. - Airline Industry Challenges: Airlines face significant challenges due to high asset costs and poor profitability, with rising jet fuel prices potentially impacting internal competition [2][5]. - Domestic Supply Issues: There is insufficient supply of UCO (Used Cooking Oil) to meet SAAS demand, leading to a contraction in device authorizations by technology suppliers [2][6]. - New Capacity Projections: Domestic new capacity is expected to exceed 4 million tons in 2026, primarily concentrated in the southwestern region of China, but raw material supply remains a bottleneck [2][6]. - Raw Material Quality: Waste cooking oil is the primary raw material for SAAS, with kitchen waste oil being the highest quality. A shortage of waste oil could lead to price increases that affect the entire supply chain [2][7]. - Price Stability: The cancellation of large wave calculations may cause short-term price fluctuations in the UCO market, but overall prices should remain stable or slightly decrease in the long term due to strong demand and resource scarcity [2][8][10]. Additional Important Insights - Production Costs: The total processing cost for producing SAP (Synthetic Aviation Fuel) from UCO is approximately 11,000 RMB per ton, with raw material costs being a significant factor [4][12]. - Market Dynamics: The demand for UCO in the overseas market is significant, with high-quality UCO primarily being exported, which could impact domestic SAAS production if not retained [19]. - Investment Trends: There is a trend of overseas companies investing in biodiesel and astaxanthin products, driven by the oil content in waste oils and geopolitical risk considerations [20]. - Biomass Char for Green Methanol: The development of biomass char for green methanol production is facing challenges in China, with a need to shift towards pre-treatment methods to improve process efficiency [21]. Future Price Trends - Market Price Fluctuations: The UCO market is expected to follow a trend of stability in the first half of the year, with potential price increases in the second half due to stockpiling demands [23].