可持续领域的防御策略：2026 年六大趋势-Sustainability-Defence in Sustainability Six Trends into 2026

Summary of the Conference Call on Defence in Sustainability Industry Overview - The report focuses on the Defence in Sustainability sector, particularly in Europe, highlighting trends and insights for 2026 [2][3]. Key Trends and Insights 1. Easing of Exclusions: - Exclusions related to conventional and nuclear weapons are easing, with positioning in Article 9 and Article 8 funds increasing by approximately 5 percentage points and 10 percentage points, respectively [2][21]. - Investors are adopting a more nuanced approach towards conventional weapons, allowing exposure to military software and surveillance while maintaining exclusions on combat equipment [15][21]. 2. Security as a Prominent Theme: - The Security theme generated the highest net inflows in 2025, surpassing even AI and Big Data, and is expected to remain significant in 2026, encompassing national security, energy security, and cybersecurity [10][29]. 3. Dual-use Technologies: - There is growing investor interest in dual-use technologies, with some focusing on technologies applicable to both civilian and defence sectors, while others are identifying companies pivoting towards defence markets [30][32]. 4. Autonomous Weapons Development: - The development of autonomous weapons is primarily driven by private companies, with public corporates focusing on "wingman" capabilities. Significant deployment is not expected until the mid-2030s [33][35]. 5. Anti-defence Technologies: - The focus on cost-effective counter-warfare technologies is increasing due to the declining costs of offensive capabilities, such as low-cost drones. This trend is accelerating demand for scalable defensive solutions [38][39]. 6. Corporate Restructuring: - Companies outside traditional aerospace and defence (A&D) sectors are pivoting towards defence, with firms like thyssenkrupp and Indra Sistemas deriving over 5% of their revenues from defence-related activities. There is also a trend of corporate restructuring to unlock valuation upside [41][43]. Additional Insights - The European Commission's stance on defence investing within sustainability remains unchanged, clarifying that nuclear weapons are not classified as controversial weapons [5]. - The report indicates that European defence spending is projected to reach 3% of GDP by 2030, implying a 7% CAGR and total spending exceeding $700 billion [47]. - The report highlights the importance of upcoming country-level defence budgets in driving order momentum and earnings estimates for companies in the sector [48]. Conclusion - The Defence in Sustainability sector is evolving with significant trends in exclusions, security themes, dual-use technologies, and corporate restructuring. The insights provided in this report are crucial for understanding the investment landscape and potential opportunities in the defence sector moving into 2026 [2][3][10].