能源服务 - 2026 年展望：宏观疲软下的选择性布局-Energy Services-Outlook 2026 Selectivity Amid a Softer Macro

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on the Energy Services sector in Europe, highlighting a selective investment approach amid a softer macroeconomic environment [1][6] - The oil market is currently absorbing increased supply from OPEC+ and non-OPEC sources, while the LNG market is expected to see a significant ramp-up in new liquefaction capacity [10] Company-Specific Insights SBM Offshore NV (SBMO.AS) - Price Target Change: Increased from €30.00 to €32.50, reflecting expectations for new orders and rising shareholder payouts [1][42] - Investment Thesis: Considered a top pick due to its strong cash flow profile, potential for new orders, and trading at an unwarranted discount [9][21] - Financials: Projected 2026 free cash flow yield exceeds 20%, with expectations for increased shareholder payouts acting as a catalyst for share price [21] Technip Energies NV (TE.PA) - Price Target Change: Decreased from €35.00 to €32.20 due to lower order intake expectations following the suspension of the Lake Charles LNG project [1][42] - Valuation: Currently trading at approximately 7x NTM EV/EBITDA, in line with historical peer levels but with limited upside potential [39] Subsea7 and Saipem - Both companies are rated Overweight and are expected to perform well in the coming quarters, with solid order intake and strong dividend potential [22][19] - Subsea7 is preferred over Saipem based on relative valuation, trading at a ~5% discount to Saipem [22] Vallourec - Minor adjustments in financial projections, with revenue and EBITDA estimates slightly modified for 2025 and 2026 [50] GTT - Exposed to LNG market dynamics, facing challenges due to delays in new LNG plant start-ups, contributing to an oversupplied LNG carrier market [37][39] Market Dynamics - Energy producers are expected to tighten budgets, impacting discretionary spending and shareholder distributions [11] - Long-cycle projects, particularly in offshore, are anticipated to be more resilient during this downturn, with the Middle East expected to continue investments despite macro challenges [13][27] Regional Insights - The Middle East is highlighted as a resilient area, with ADNOC committing to invest $150 billion over 2026-2030 and Saudi Arabia reactivating rigs [28][30] - A new OPEC+ framework for assessing production capacity may incentivize higher spending among members, benefiting companies like Arabian Drilling and Saipem [29][30] Conclusion - The report emphasizes a selective investment strategy within the energy services sector, favoring offshore-exposed companies like SBM Offshore, Subsea7, and Saipem while avoiding LNG-exposed stocks due to valuation concerns [9][19][35]