十五五电网投资展望专家会-新型电力系统电话会

Summary of Conference Call on New Power System Investment Outlook Industry Overview - The conference call focused on the investment outlook for the power grid during the 15th Five-Year Plan period, particularly emphasizing the development of ultra-high voltage (UHV) projects and the integration of renewable energy sources [1][2]. Key Points and Arguments Ultra-High Voltage (UHV) Development - UHV construction is expected to accelerate during the 15th Five-Year Plan, with over 20 direct current (DC) lines anticipated, representing a significant increase compared to the 14th Five-Year Plan [1][7]. - The completion of UHV projects from the 14th Five-Year Plan was hindered by various factors, including the pandemic and insufficient preparation, with only 9 out of 14 planned DC lines completed [3][4]. Main Grid Investment - Investment in the main grid is projected to increase significantly, driven by the need to support UHV DC lines and the rapid development of renewable energy [5][2]. - The main grid investment is expected to grow by over 50%, with specific voltage levels (220kV, 330kV, 500kV, and 750kV) seeing substantial increases [2]. Distribution Network Digitalization - Investment in the digitalization of the distribution network is growing steadily at approximately 20%, focusing on enhancing supply reliability and management efficiency [6][1]. - Digitalization efforts will prioritize artificial intelligence applications and digital twin technology to improve operational efficiency [12][17]. Renewable Energy Consumption Challenges - The rapid growth of renewable energy has led to significant bottlenecks in consumption, particularly in regions like Northwest and Northeast China, where the curtailment rates for solar power can reach 50%-70% [8][16]. - The existing transmission capacity is insufficient to accommodate the increased renewable energy generation, leading to higher curtailment rates and dissatisfaction among power generation companies [9][10]. Distribution Network Investment Shortfalls - The growth rate of distribution network investment has not met expectations due to regulatory cycles and the need for precise investment effectiveness assessments [11][1]. - Large-scale upgrades required for high-penetration household solar installations have not yet been fully initiated, with a continued focus on main grid construction [11][1]. Future Expectations and Policy Changes - The national grid's energy storage construction will primarily focus on pumped storage, with an expected annual capacity of 8-9 GW, maintaining levels from the previous plan [21][22]. - A national capacity compensation policy is anticipated to be introduced, which may face opposition from local governments concerned about rising end-user electricity prices [23][24]. Technological Innovations - The development of new generation dispatch technologies will focus on integrating digitalization with operational practices to enhance automation and reliability [19][18]. - The introduction of flexible control devices in the medium and high voltage networks is expected to stabilize the grid and improve energy transmission efficiency [27][26]. Additional Important Insights - The digitalization of the power grid is transitioning from foundational infrastructure to more advanced applications, emphasizing the integration of AI and digital twin technologies [17][12]. - The need for innovative business models in the distribution network is highlighted, requiring significant structural adjustments to improve reliability and efficiency [26][1].