SIASUN(SZ:300024)2026-01-22 02:44Summary of the Conference Call on China Humanoid Robotics Industry Industry Overview - Industry Focus: The humanoid robotics industry in China is expected to undergo significant commercialization in 2026, with component suppliers poised to benefit first from this growth [1][4] - Sales Forecast: The sales volume forecast for China humanoid robots has been doubled from 14,000 to 28,000 units for 2026, with business sales expected to be the primary driver [2][32] Key Highlights for 2026 1. Revenue Growth: Component companies are anticipated to see increased revenues and profits from humanoid robots, with Leaderdrive expected to contribute 25%-30% of its revenue from humanoids in 2026/27 [4][21] 2. Market Dynamics: The industry is experiencing a shake-out and consolidation phase, with a focus on finding viable commercialization cases for integrators [9] 3. Cost Deflation: The average Bill of Materials (BoM) costs in China are projected to decline by 16% year-over-year, despite increasing specifications, due to economies of scale [9][49] 4. Technological Focus: The development of 'brain' technology is becoming a key focus, shifting from hardware to software advancements [9] 5. Global Expansion: As commercialization begins in China, the industry is expected to go global [9] 6. Stock Market Volatility: The market is likely to experience catalyst-driven volatility, particularly with humanoid integrator IPOs [9] 7. Non-Humanoid Forms: Non-humanoid robots are expected to see faster near-term commercialization, offering better immediate ROI [9] Financial Projections - Market Size: The humanoid market in China is projected to grow to $480 billion by 2040, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 72% [34][35] - Component Market: The global humanoid component market is expected to reach $780 billion by 2040, with a CAGR of 52% [39][20] Risks and Challenges - Commercialization Delays: Key risks include potential delays in commercialization and production by leading humanoid companies, as well as changes in technology routes [4] - Market Sentiment: The market sentiment may be affected by the fading hype around R&D and entertainment applications, which are expected to weaken in 2026/27 [31] - Data Bottlenecks: The effectiveness of humanoid robots is still limited by data availability and the need for robust foundational models [56] Stock Implications - Updated Stock List: A total of 46 companies are included in the updated China humanoid value chain stock list, with notable mentions such as Hengli Hydraulic, Inovance, and Shuanghuan [4][28] - Investment Recommendations: Companies like Leaderdrive are expected to benefit significantly from the humanoid market, with specific revenue contributions forecasted [4][21] Conclusion The humanoid robotics industry in China is on the brink of significant growth, with a strong emphasis on commercialization and technological advancements. However, potential risks related to delays and market sentiment must be closely monitored as the industry evolves.