中国房地产 - 月度追踪：12 月数据进一步走弱；2026 年或仍具挑战-China Property-Monthly Tracker December Data Weakened Further; 2026 May Stay Challenging

Summary of the Conference Call on China Property Market Industry Overview - The conference call focused on the China Property market, specifically discussing the challenges and outlook for 2026 in the Asia Pacific region [1][9]. Key Points and Arguments 1. Home Sales Decline: - Home sales in December showed a significant decline, with the CREIS 65-city primary sales volume falling 35% year-on-year compared to a 41% decline in November. The 33-city secondary sales volume decreased by 29% year-on-year, worsening from a 20% decline in November [3]. - For the full year 2025, primary sales growth weakened to -20% year-on-year, while secondary sales saw a slight decline of -1% year-on-year [3]. 2. Stable Price Declines: - The NBS reported that primary home prices in 70 cities fell by 3.0% year-on-year and 0.4% month-on-month. Secondary prices dropped 6.1% year-on-year and 0.7% month-on-month [4]. - Tier-1 cities experienced deeper secondary price declines, with a 1.3% month-on-month drop, compared to 0.7% in tier-2 and lower-tier cities [4]. 3. Inventory Levels: - Primary inventory months increased to 29.6x in December, up from 27.8x in November, indicating weaker sales across all city tiers. Tier-1 cities saw inventory rise to 19.5x, tier-2 to 28.8x, and tier-3 to 38.2x [6]. 4. Land Sales Weakness: - Land sales in December dropped 12% year-on-year in GFA and 23% year-on-year in value, leading to a year-to-date decline of -13.4% year-on-year in GFA [7]. 5. Market Sentiment and Policy Support: - The market sentiment remains fragile, with higher inventory levels and reactive policy support expected to keep the physical market challenging in 2026. The focus should be on quality state-owned enterprises (SOEs) with clearer alpha visibility [1][2]. 6. Investment Recommendations: - Favorable companies include CR Land and Seazen A as robust mall operators benefiting from consumption-boosting initiatives. C&D and COLI are recommended as residential market consolidators with optimized landbanks that could support margins and return to positive earnings growth [2]. Additional Important Insights - Client Engagement: Client visits decreased by 4% month-on-month, indicating a potential decline in investor interest [5]. - Listing Volume: New secondary listings softened to -3% month-on-month and -15% year-on-year, while total listings remained stable at -0.9% month-on-month [5]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call regarding the current state and future outlook of the China Property market, highlighting significant declines in sales and prices, increasing inventory, and the need for strategic investment in quality companies.