中国房地产：年末全面走弱- 若无重大政策转向，2026 年低迷将持续-China housing_ broad-based weakness at year-end_ Downturn to persist in 2026 without major policy shift

Summary of J.P. Morgan's Research on China's Housing Market Industry Overview - The report focuses on the Chinese housing market, highlighting a broad-based weakness at year-end 2025 and projecting a continued downturn into 2026 without significant policy changes [1][6]. Key Indicators and Trends - Housing Activity Index: J.P. Morgan's housing activity index showed a slight increase at year-end, but most indicators are still contracting sharply. Key metrics include: - New home sales down 18.9% year-over-year - New starts down 18.8% - Completions down 20.6% - Real estate fixed asset investment (FAI) down 36.5% - Funding sources down 28.1% [1][4]. - Price Trends: - New home prices fell 0.37% month-over-month (non-seasonally adjusted) in December, a slight improvement from -0.39% in November. - Secondary home prices dropped 0.70%, with larger declines in tier-2 and tier-3 cities. - New home prices are down 12.6% from the 2021 peak, while secondary prices have decreased by 21.3% [1][2]. - Inventory Levels: - New homes under construction equate to 72.3 months of sales, while completed unsold units stand at 6.7 months [1][2]. Demand and Supply Dynamics - The equilibrium demand for housing in China is estimated at around 1 billion square meters annually. However, both demand and supply are expected to remain below this equilibrium in the near term due to weak income and price expectations [2][6]. - The market is characterized by curtailed demand, widespread incomplete projects, and rising inventories of unsold units, leading to a collapse in housing transactions and investment [2][6]. Policy Measures and Market Outlook - Recent policy measures, including relaxed home purchase restrictions and lower mortgage costs, have been introduced to support the market. However, these measures are viewed as insufficient to halt the ongoing correction or revive the market [3][5]. - A comprehensive rescue package is deemed necessary to stabilize the housing market, which may include a large-scale real estate stability fund and removal of purchase restrictions [5][6]. Future Projections - Without major policy changes, the downturn in the housing market is expected to persist into 2026, with key indicators continuing to contract, albeit at a slower pace. A further 10% decline in real estate FAI is anticipated, contributing to a macro drag on GDP growth [6][5]. - Critical indicators for the outlook include house price trends and new home sales by state-owned enterprise (SOE) developers. Price stabilization is essential for demand recovery, while faster declines could pose additional risks [6][4]. Conclusion - The Chinese housing market is facing significant challenges, with ongoing declines in key metrics and elevated inventories. Without substantial policy reforms, the market is likely to continue its correction, impacting broader economic growth and household wealth [2][6].