日本股票策略：长期利率上行背景下的日本投资策略指南-Japan Equity Strategy-Investment Strategy Playbook for Japan Amid Rising Long-Term Interest Rates

Summary of the Japan Equity Strategy Conference Call Industry Overview - The focus is on the Japanese equity market amid rising long-term interest rates, particularly the implications for stock selection and investment strategies in Japan [1][6][15]. Core Insights - Negative Real Interest Rates: Despite rising long-term interest rates, Japan's real interest rates remain negative, which is supportive of equity valuations [6][15][16]. - Equity Valuations: Japanese equities are considered inexpensive in a global context, with a higher yield spread compared to the US and Europe, indicating that rising rates do not necessarily lead to a bearish outlook for Japanese stocks [17][36]. - Leverage Metrics: Leverage-related metrics are not expected to be significant drivers of stock selection in the current environment, with a shift towards value factors becoming more effective [6][22][32]. Market Dynamics - Long-Term Interest Rates: The Bank of Japan (BoJ) faces challenges with rising yields, particularly in the super-long segment of the Japanese Government Bonds (JGB) market, which has seen a lack of buyers and increased selling pressure [7][8][11]. - Fiscal Concerns: There are concerns regarding fiscal dominance as the government considers consumption tax cuts, which could impact market confidence and bond yields [11][14][35]. - Investment Strategy: The current environment suggests that investors should not adopt excessive pessimism towards Japanese equities, as the fundamentals remain supportive [15][36]. Key Data Points - JGB Yields: As of January 20, 2026, 10-year JGB yields exceeded 2.3%, marking a significant rise [38]. - Dividend Yields: For over 20 years, long-term yields have remained below dividend yields, but recent trends show a slight inversion, indicating changing market dynamics [39][41]. - Value Factor Performance: A 1% increase in Japanese long-term rates is estimated to raise composite value factor returns by 23.83%, significantly higher than the impact of US long-term rates [33][62]. Additional Considerations - Market Liquidity: The lack of buyers in the super-long JGB market has led to a self-reinforcing negative cycle, raising concerns about fiscal stability and market liquidity [8][10]. - Equity Growth Expectations: In rising rate environments, companies with higher leverage may outperform due to enhanced growth expectations, countering the typical profit pressure from increased interest expenses [22][25][28]. - Inflation Dynamics: Historical data suggests that moderate inflation levels are beneficial for equities, indicating potential for improved returns if Japan transitions from deflation to a stable inflationary environment [57]. Conclusion - The Japanese equity market is positioned to navigate rising long-term interest rates without significant adverse effects, supported by negative real interest rates and attractive equity valuations. Investors are encouraged to focus on value factors and remain optimistic about the potential for growth in the Japanese market [15][36].