铜-宏观面强劲，微观面疲软-Commodity Matters-Copper Macro Strength, Micro Weakness

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call on Copper Market Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the copper market, discussing macroeconomic and microeconomic factors affecting supply and demand dynamics in 2026 [1][2]. Core Insights Macro Factors Supporting Copper - The macroeconomic environment remains supportive for copper, with anticipated interest rate cuts and demand for real assets driving interest in non-yielding assets [2]. - New demand themes, particularly from data centers, are contributing to the demand for copper [2]. Supply Constraints - Limited growth in copper mine supply is expected in 2026, with a forecasted deficit of approximately 600,000 tonnes due to a mere 0.2% growth in mine supply against a 1.8% increase in demand [4]. - Ongoing strike actions are already impacting mine output, contributing to the tight supply situation [4]. Micro Factors Weakening Demand - US import demand for copper is moderating, with LME (London Metal Exchange) inventories rising as a result of increased copper arrivals in late 2025 and early 2026 [3][10]. - Chinese apparent copper demand has weakened, with exports increasing and inventories rising counterseasonally, particularly ahead of the Lunar New Year [3][25]. Additional Important Insights - The narrowing of the COMEX-LME spread has reduced financial incentives for shipping copper to the US, leading to some copper moving into LME warehouses [3][9]. - The upcoming decision on US refined copper tariffs will be crucial for the market outlook in the second half of 2026 and into 2027 [11][24]. - China's refined copper output grew by 10% in 2025, reaching record levels, despite tight global copper concentrate markets [37]. - The Yangshan premium has fallen to -$22/tonne, indicating weakening physical demand from fabricators in China [26]. Conclusion - The copper market is characterized by a supportive macro backdrop but faces challenges from moderating demand in the US and China. Supply constraints are expected to maintain a tight market, but short-term volatility may arise due to uncertainties surrounding tariffs and demand data from China [4][9].