G10 货币策略：全球最新观点G10 FX Strategy _ Global Our Latest Views

Summary of Morgan Stanley's G10 FX Strategy Conference Call Industry Overview - Industry: Foreign Exchange (FX) Strategy - Date: January 16, 2026 Key Points by Currency USD (US Dollar) - View: Neutral - Skew: Bearish - Insights: - The DXY is expected to remain neutral as investors are holding back until clearer trends emerge - Anticipated USD weakness against risk-sensitive currencies such as SEK, AUD, and CAD [2][12][16] EUR (Euro) - View: Neutral - Skew: Bullish - Insights: - Upside risks to EUR/USD due to potential USD weakness - Increased negative risk premium on USD could lead to gains in EUR/USD, especially amid domestic and geopolitical volatility [3][17] JPY (Japanese Yen) - View: Neutral - Skew: Neutral - Insights: - A resilient US economy and fiscal concerns in Japan may pressure JPY - Potential for imminent FX intervention as indicated by recent comments from the Ministry of Finance [4][18] GBP (British Pound) - View: Neutral - Skew: Bearish - Insights: - Tactical bearish stance ahead of inflation and employment data, which may trigger a GBP sell-off - Risks of dovish repricing by the Bank of England could amplify GBP weakness [5][19] CHF (Swiss Franc) - View: Neutral - Skew: Neutral - Insights: - Potential downside risks for EUR/CHF due to US tariff rulings - Reduced intervention risk from the Swiss National Bank (SNB) [6][20] CAD (Canadian Dollar) - View: Bullish - Skew: Bullish - Insights: - Recommendation to short USD/CAD as Canada diversifies its export partners - Rate convergence through 2026 favors CAD [7][21] AUD (Australian Dollar) - View: Bullish - Skew: Bullish - Insights: - Recommendation to long AUD/USD, with expectations of outperformance ahead of CPI data - Low pricing for a February RBA hike could rise on strong inflation [8][22] NZD (New Zealand Dollar) - View: Neutral - Skew: Neutral - Insights: - Mixed labor data and a hawkish shift from the RBNZ have limited NZD's performance - Expected to rise against USD but lag behind AUD [9][13][22] SEK (Swedish Krona) - View: Bullish - Skew: Bullish - Insights: - Positive outlook due to global risk demand and growth expectations - Tactical indicators suggest EUR/SEK may be oversold [14][23] NOK (Norwegian Krone) - View: Neutral - Skew: Neutral - Insights: - Strong correlation to oil prices may limit gains - Risks of a dovish Norges Bank pivot could weigh on NOK [15][25] Additional Insights - Trade Ideas: - Short USD/CAD at 1.3799 with a target of 1.34 - Long AUD/USD at 0.6604 with a target of 0.6900 - Short EUR/SEK at 10.9101 with a target of 10.20 [15][26] - Market Sentiment: - Investors are cautious and holding back on positions until clearer trends emerge, indicating a range-bound DXY for the near term [16] - Economic Indicators to Watch: - Key economic data releases such as ADP Employment, GDP Revision, Jobless Claims, and CPI are critical for future currency movements [16][17][19] This summary encapsulates the key insights and recommendations from Morgan Stanley's G10 FX strategy conference call, highlighting the current views on major currencies and the underlying economic factors influencing these perspectives.