硬盘驱动器：北美市场 2026 财年第二季度财报前瞻-预期仍偏向上修-Hard Disk Drives North America F2Q26 Earnings Preview — Estimates Still Biased Upwards

Summary of Hard Disk Drives Industry Earnings Preview Industry Overview - The report focuses on the Hard Disk Drives (HDD) industry in North America, specifically analyzing Seagate Technology (STX.O) and Western Digital (WDC.O) [1][5][7]. Key Companies and Price Targets - Seagate Technology (STX.O): Price target raised from $337.00 to $372.00 [1][5]. - Western Digital (WDC.O): Price target raised from $228.00 to $260.00 [1][5]. Core Insights and Arguments - Revenue and EPS Outlook: Modest revenue upside and strong gross margin improvements are expected to drive positive EPS revisions for both companies this quarter, with estimates biased upwards by 4-5% [4][7]. - HDD Demand Drivers: Continued strength in HDD demand is attributed to: 1. Better than expected exabyte (EB) output. 2. Positive mix shift towards higher capacity drives. 3. Relative pricing strength [4][7]. - Industry Supply-Demand Dynamics: The HDD industry is experiencing a supply shortage of over 10% against demand, leading to consistent price increases [7][11]. Financial Performance Expectations - Gross Margin Projections: - WDC's gross margin is expected to expand by 60 basis points quarter-over-quarter, while STX's is projected to expand by 110 basis points [17][22]. - Both companies are expected to achieve gross margins above consensus estimates, with WDC at 45.0% and STX at 41.2% for the December quarter [22][24]. - Earnings Estimates: - December quarter EPS estimates for WDC and STX are projected at $1.99 and $2.90, respectively, with March quarter estimates at $2.06 and $3.14 [24][27]. Market Trends and Future Outlook - Cloud Storage Demand: The correlation between HDD revenue growth and cloud capital expenditure growth is strong, indicating that demand for HDDs will continue to rise as cloud services expand [9][10]. - Innovation and Product Development: WDC's upcoming "Innovation Day" on February 3rd is expected to provide updates on product roadmaps, particularly regarding high-capacity drives [38][39]. - Investment Thesis: Both STX and WDC are rated as Overweight, with WDC being the top pick due to more immediate positive catalysts and a better risk-adjusted return [28][43]. Risks and Considerations - Potential Risks: - The HDD industry may face challenges such as pricing normalization, geopolitical tensions, and competitive pressures that could impact margins and growth [60]. - Market Sentiment: Despite potential near-term misses in earnings expectations, the long-term outlook remains positive due to strong demand trends in data centers and cloud storage [28][40]. Conclusion - The HDD industry is poised for growth driven by strong demand in cloud storage, favorable pricing dynamics, and improving gross margins. Both Seagate and Western Digital are well-positioned to capitalize on these trends, with upward revisions to earnings estimates reflecting a robust outlook for the sector [1][4][7].