2026-01-23 15:35Summary of ASMPT (0522.HK) Conference Call Company Overview - Company: ASMPT - Industry: Semiconductor and LED assembly and packaging equipment supplier - Founded: 1975 - Market Cap: HK$42,530 million (US$5,453 million) [7] Key Points Target Price and Valuation - Target Price: Raised to HK$125 based on a peak valuation of 35x P/E for 2026E, reflecting strong sector re-rating and potential from SMT business reassessment [1][5] - Historical Valuation: ASMPT shares have typically traded at 15x-25x forward P/E, but could break out of this range as it transitions to a pure SEMI play [5] Earnings Projections - 2026E Net Profit: Estimated at HK$1.475 billion with a diluted EPS of HK$3.53, representing an 847.2% growth from 2025E [6][10] - 2027E Net Profit: Expected to rise to HK$1.995 billion with a diluted EPS of HK$4.78, a 35.3% increase from 2026E [6][10] Strategic Business Moves - SMT Divestiture: ASMPT is exploring strategic options for its SMT business, including divestiture, which could enhance share valuation by focusing solely on SEMI and advanced packaging (AP) [3][10] - SOTP Analysis: Suggests a value per share exceeding HK$130, with SEMI/SMT net profit estimates of HK$1.0 billion/HK$475 million in 2026E and HK$1.2 billion/HK$753 million in 2027E [4][10] Industry Dynamics - OSAT Capex Growth: Increased capital expenditure in advanced packaging driven by robust demand in high-performance computing (HPC) is expected to benefit AP equipment vendors [2] - AI-Driven Demand: ASMPT is positioned to benefit from rising demand for AI-driven advanced packaging solutions, particularly in TCB (Through Silicon Via) applications [24][25] Risks - Downside Risks: Include potential slowdown in AI infrastructure investment, loss of TCB market share, reduced demand due to alternative technologies, intensifying competition, and export restrictions affecting back-end equipment [26] Financial Metrics - 2023A Net Profit: HK$715 million with a diluted EPS of HK$1.73, reflecting a -72.7% decline [6] - 2024A Net Profit: Expected to drop to HK$345 million with a diluted EPS of HK$0.83, a -51.9% decrease [6] - 2025E Net Profit: Projected at HK$155 million with a diluted EPS of HK$0.37, a -55.2% decline [6] Market Performance - Expected Share Price Return: 22.8% with an expected total return of 24.9% [7] - Dividend Yield: Expected at 2.1% for 2026E [7] Conclusion - ASMPT is positioned for significant growth driven by strategic divestitures and increasing demand in the semiconductor industry, particularly in advanced packaging solutions. The company's focus on transforming into a pure SEMI play is expected to unlock additional shareholder value.