全球存储市场NAND闪存演变、创新与展望

Summary of J.P. Morgan's Long-Term NAND Market Dynamics Industry Overview - The report focuses on the NAND Flash Memory sector within the semiconductors industry, highlighting its evolution, current innovations, and future outlook [3][10][11]. Key Insights Long-Term Market Dynamics - The Total Addressable Market (TAM) for NAND is expected to grow at a CAGR of 34% over the next three years, driven by a 20% CAGR in bit demand and a low-teens percentage increase in ASP [3][18]. - Historical trends show that NAND bit demand growth has decelerated due to maturing end markets like smartphones and PCs, but the introduction of eSSD has shifted growth dynamics [3][14][17]. Demand Drivers - eSSD demand is projected to grow significantly, with a CAGR of 49% from 2025 to 2028, driven by AI applications and data center needs [3][17]. - As of 2024, SSDs account for 54% of NAND bit demand, while smartphones represent approximately 30% [17][90]. Pricing and Revenue Trends - NAND revenue per Kwfpm is forecasted to increase from US$55k in 2025 to US$102k by 2027 [3]. - The ASP for NAND has historically been under pressure but is expected to rise due to strategic production cuts and strong demand from AI-driven data centers [3][40]. Comparison with DRAM - NAND is viewed as less attractive compared to DRAM due to market fragmentation and lower exposure to AI applications. However, the AI NAND TAM is expected to reach US$70 billion by 2028, compared to US$220 billion for AI DRAM [3][37]. - The capital intensity for NAND is projected to average 16% from 2025 to 2027, compared to 26% for DRAM, indicating stricter capex discipline among NAND suppliers [3][37]. Technology and Capacity Trends - The transition to 3D NAND technology has allowed for increased storage capacity without a proportional rise in cost, supporting ASPs [39]. - The industry is experiencing a capacity shrink due to technology migration, which may impact future production capabilities [4][39]. Additional Insights - The NAND industry has not seen the same level of consolidation as DRAM due to its diverse applications and technological differentiation, allowing smaller players to thrive [87][88]. - The report emphasizes the importance of AI in shaping future demand, with AI memory expected to account for nearly half of the global memory TAM by 2027, growing at an 80% CAGR during 2024-2027 [59][60]. Conclusion - The NAND Flash Memory market is poised for significant growth driven by technological advancements, particularly in eSSD applications and AI integration. The competitive landscape remains dynamic, with opportunities for both established and emerging players in the sector.