2026年Robovan深度报告汇报

Summary of the Conference Call on RoboOne Industry Industry Overview - The RoboOne (LOB ONE) market is experiencing explosive growth, with leading companies expected to deliver 50,000 units in 2024, significantly up from over 20,000 units last year, primarily for urban internal delivery applications in complex environments similar to Robotaxi technology [1][2] - The regulatory policies pose a major challenge for the development of LOB ONE, with current licensing management being relatively ambiguous, and stricter regulations in the future potentially impacting industry expansion [1][4] Key Players and Competitive Landscape - Desay SV is noted for its full-stack self-research capabilities, from chip pre-controllers to vehicle operations, providing a latecomer advantage [1][5] - Youjia Innovation, a commercial vehicle autonomous driving operator, is actively expanding its orders [1][5] - Jingwei Hirain has a strong partnership with Baixin Niu, excelling in remote control and line control hardware capabilities [1][5] - Major competitors in the RoboOne field include Jiushi Intelligent, New Era, and Baixin Niu, with Jiushi Intelligent rapidly increasing its market share through partnerships with several express delivery companies [20][25] Market Applications and Trends - RoboOne is primarily applied in the express delivery sector, with approximately 27,000 units delivered domestically from January to November 2025, nearing a total of 30,000 units for the year [1][6] - Future penetration into urban delivery markets for fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG), durable goods warehousing, and chain restaurants is anticipated [1][6] - The express delivery industry is the preferred landing scene for RoboOne due to its large scale and cost-reduction pressures, with a potential market size of 20 billion yuan in 2024, expected to grow to 60 billion yuan by 2030 [3][19] AI Empowerment and Efficiency - AI empowerment is enabling the transportation industry to enhance efficiency at the hardware level, particularly for B-end scenarios with complex but predictable demands, driving urban delivery market development [7][9] - The current AI technology upgrade is significantly improving B-end transportation efficiency compared to the previous 4G mobile internet wave, which primarily addressed C-end issues [8][10] Market Size and Potential - The domestic urban delivery market exceeds 1 trillion yuan, with 64% attributed to branch transportation, and key components include FMCG delivery (30%) and cross-regional e-commerce (17%) [15] - The demand for RoboOne is estimated at 15 million units, with a potential market space of approximately 730 billion yuan if fully replacing existing vehicles, indicating a total market scale exceeding 1 trillion yuan when combined with the express delivery sector [23][24] Challenges and Future Outlook - The development of LOB ONE faces challenges from regulatory pressures, with the current rapid expansion of major players dependent on policy changes [4][21] - The ideal application scenarios for RoboOne include e-commerce express delivery, FMCG delivery, durable goods warehousing, and chain restaurants, which are characterized by fixed-route transportation without door-to-door service requirements [18][17] - The express delivery sector's economic pressures and the potential for significant cost reductions (over 50%) through the use of RoboOne vehicles are driving strong demand from B-end enterprises [19] Conclusion - The RoboOne industry is poised for substantial growth, driven by technological advancements, regulatory developments, and increasing demand for cost-effective delivery solutions across various sectors. The landscape is competitive, with several key players emerging as leaders in the market.