美国：1 月美联储议息会议前瞻 - 还有空间，但暂不会行动-US Daily_ January FOMC Preview_ Further to Go, but Not for a While

Summary of the January FOMC Preview Industry Overview - The document discusses the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) and its monetary policy decisions, particularly regarding the federal funds rate and labor market conditions. Key Points and Arguments - The January FOMC meeting is expected to be uneventful, with no change to the fed funds rate, which remains at 3.5-3.75% [2][3] - Chair Powell is anticipated to emphasize the recent three rate cuts aimed at stabilizing the labor market, indicating that the FOMC is well-positioned to assess their impact [5][6] - There is a consensus among 15 of 19 FOMC participants that additional rate cuts may be appropriate eventually, but the leadership seeks a stronger consensus for future cuts compared to the last cut in December [11][19] - The next expected rate cut is projected for June, followed by another in September, bringing the rate down to a range of 3-3.25% [18][22] - The risks over the next year or two are viewed as tilted to the downside, with hikes being unlikely, but potential reasons for additional cuts include a lower terminal rate or an increase in the unemployment rate [19][22] Labor Market Insights - The labor market is expected to stabilize this year, with an anticipated unemployment rate of 4.5% [6][7] - Job growth appears insufficient to keep pace with labor supply growth, indicating potential challenges ahead [6] - The stability of the unemployment rate since September is seen as a positive sign, but job growth remains a concern [6][8] Inflation Considerations - FOMC participants have differing views on inflation progress, with some focusing on core PCE inflation estimates that are close to 2%, while others rely on official numbers that may remain closer to 3% in the near term [15][17] - A firmer consensus for future cuts will require more convincing progress on inflation, which may take time to materialize [15][19] Additional Important Content - The document includes various exhibits illustrating job growth trends and inflation forecasts, which support the analysis presented [9][10][21] - The FOMC's approach to monetary policy is characterized by a cautious stance, reflecting the current economic uncertainties and the need for a careful assessment of labor market conditions and inflation data [2][19]