DRAM 情绪指标：2026 年 1 月-DRAM 合约价格短期上行空间强劲-GS DRAM Sentiment Indicator_ Jan. 2026_ strong near-term upside in DRAM contract pricing

Summary of DRAM Market Insights - January 2026 Industry Overview - The report focuses on the DRAM industry, highlighting key trends and performance indicators for January 2026, with a moderately positive sentiment similar to December 2025 [1][6]. Key Insights 1. DRAM Pricing Trends - Both DDR5 and DDR4 spot pricing are experiencing a strong rally, with DDR5 trading at a 76% premium and DDR4 at a 172% premium over December contract pricing, indicating a high probability for a significant increase in contract pricing in the near term [7][1]. 2. Nanya Technology Performance - Nanya Tech reported a remarkable revenue increase of 445% year-over-year (yoy) in December, marking five consecutive months of triple-digit yoy growth, with an accelerating growth rate [9][1]. 3. Server ODM Revenue Growth - Server ODMs (Original Design Manufacturers) saw a 94% yoy revenue growth in December, attributed to the ramp-up in rack-level AI server shipments, continuing a trend of over 50% yoy growth for 13 consecutive months [8][1]. 4. Korea DRAM Export Revenue - Korea's DRAM export revenue increased by 72% yoy in December, driven by rising DRAM prices due to tight supply conditions [8][1]. 5. China Smartphone Shipments - In November, China smartphone shipments increased by 2% yoy, marking five consecutive months of growth, although year-to-date shipments show a flat trend [9][1]. 6. Aspeed Revenue Growth - Aspeed, the largest BMC supplier for servers globally, reported an 18% yoy revenue increase in December, reflecting solid growth off a high base [8][1]. 7. Supreme Electronics Performance - Supreme Electronics, a Taiwanese distributor, experienced a 32% yoy revenue increase in December [9][1]. 8. Market Sentiment and Pricing Expectations - Investor expectations for 1Q26 conventional memory pricing growth have risen, with some customers in the mobile market accepting pricing quotes significantly higher than those agreed in 4Q25, suggesting potential upside for memory pricing and earnings for memory companies [12][13][1]. Additional Insights - The second derivative of industry DRAM average selling price (ASP) is estimated to grow by approximately 7% in 1Q26, with a projected 50% quarter-over-quarter increase in blended ASP for SEC [10][30][1]. - The consensus for HBM (High Bandwidth Memory) business in 2026 shows limited change in pricing expectations, with a conservative outlook on HBM pricing due to anticipated cuts in HBM3E 12-Hi pricing [11][1]. Conclusion - The DRAM market is showing strong signs of growth, particularly in pricing and revenue for key players like Nanya Tech and server ODMs. The overall sentiment remains positive, with expectations for continued growth in pricing and revenue across the sector in the near term.