全球宏观下一步：4 大主题，10 大预测-What's Next in Global Macro-4 Themes, 10 Predictions

Summary of Key Points from Morgan Stanley Research Conference Call Industry and Company Overview - The conference call focuses on thematic investing and macroeconomic trends for 2026, highlighting four key themes: AI/Tech Diffusion, The Future of Energy, The Multipolar World, and Societal Shifts [2][3] Core Insights and Arguments 1. Thematic Investing Performance: In 2025, thematic stock categories outperformed MSCI World and S&P 500 by 16% and 27% respectively, indicating the effectiveness of thematic investing strategies [3] 2. AI and Tech Diffusion: The call discusses the significant advancements in AI, particularly in the U.S., where American LLMs (Large Language Models) are expected to achieve substantial capability improvements in the first half of 2026, outpacing Chinese counterparts [7] 3. Compute Demand vs. Supply: There is a projected shortfall in compute supply due to the exponential growth in AI adoption, leading to increased demand for data center capabilities [7] 4. U.S. Policy Agenda: The Trump administration is expected to take stronger actions to secure domestic supplies of critical minerals and support re-shoring of manufacturing, which may impact various sectors [7] 5. AI Technology Transfer: China is anticipated to push for more extensive AI technology transfers from the U.S., which could alter trade dynamics and national capabilities in AI [7] 6. Energy Politics: Rising global energy costs are leading to backlash against data center growth, prompting a shift towards low-cost energy solutions and off-grid strategies [10] 7. AI and Energy Convergence: Major AI companies are taking steps to control energy infrastructure to ensure reliable and cost-effective energy supply, which is crucial for their operations [10] 8. Global Manufacturing Dynamics: China is increasing its share in global technology manufacturing, while the U.S. is experiencing a renaissance in re-shoring, particularly in tech-heavy industries [10] 9. Latin America Investment Cycle: A combination of policy shifts, changing geopolitics, and peak interest rates is expected to drive a new investment cycle in Latin America, focusing on investment rather than consumption [10] 10. Job Reskilling Initiatives: There are numerous corporate and government initiatives aimed at reskilling workers affected by AI-driven job losses, reflecting political sensitivity to employment changes [10] 11. Transformative AI Impact: By the second half of 2026, transformative AI is expected to drive deflation, increased capital expenditures, and changes in asset valuations, potentially leading to greater wage inequality [10] Other Important Insights - The thematic lens is seen as a powerful tool for identifying investment opportunities during periods of market volatility, with a focus on societal impacts driven by demographic changes and technological advancements [2] - The report emphasizes the importance of understanding the economics of LLM developers at the data center level, suggesting attractive economic conditions for investors [7] - The call highlights the need for investors to consider the broader implications of AI and energy dynamics on various industries and investment strategies [10]