中国医疗科技专家电话会要点：中国 IVD 市场近况摸底-China Medtech Expert call takeaways_ Pulse check on China‘s IVD market

Summary of Expert Call on China's IVD Market Industry Overview - Industry: In-vitro diagnostics (IVD) market in China - Expert: Mr. Fang, an IVD distributor with over 15 years of experience Key Points Market Size and Growth Trends - Q425 Market Performance: - Chemiluminescent immunoassay (CLIA): -12% YoY in test volume and -16% YoY in revenue, but showed QoQ recovery as panel test unbundling policies ended [2][8] - Clinical Chemistry: -5% YoY in both volume and revenue, with volume-based procurement (VBP) largely completed [2][8] - Haematology: +6% YoY in both volume and revenue, driven by high influenza A incidence [2][8] - Haemostasis: +5% YoY in both volume and revenue [2][8] - Molecular Testing: +9% YoY in revenue, also supported by influenza A [2][9] - Point of Care Tests (POCT): -11% YoY in both volume and revenue, due to a shift to CLIA and suspension of non-compliant prescriptions [2][9] Competitive Landscape - Channel Inventory: - CLIA: Global brands have 3 months of sales in inventory, down 2 weeks from Q325; domestic brands have 6-10 weeks [3][14] - Haematology: Mindray and Sysmex have 14 weeks and 5 months of sales in inventory, respectively, expected to reduce in 2026 [3][17] - Import Substitution: - Significant gains for domestic companies like Mindray in CLIA and haemostasis, while overseas companies like Roche and Siemens lost market share [3][12][28] 2026 Market Outlook - Growth Projections: - CLIA: Expected to shrink by 2% YoY despite a 2-3% increase in test volume [4][19] - Clinical Chemistry: Anticipated growth of 2% YoY [4][20] - Haematology: Expected growth of 5% YoY, assuming no national policy headwinds [4][21] - Haemostasis: Expected growth of 6% YoY [4][22] - Molecular Testing: Expected growth of 7% YoY [4][23] - POCT: Expected decline of 6% YoY [4][24] Policy Impacts - Testing Fee Unification: Seen as a major swing factor for market growth in 2026, with potential price cuts of 30-40% for reagents not covered by VBPs [4][35][37] - VBP Implementation: Five provinces have initiated VBP programs, with full implementation expected by Q126 [29] Risks and Considerations - Market Risks: - Potential for larger-than-expected price reductions and smaller market share gains from VBP programs [40] - Weaker demand from equipment renewal programs and geopolitical issues affecting supply chains [40] Additional Insights - The expert noted that the impact of the Chinese New Year on sales growth was about 5-6% YoY due to later occurrence in 2026 compared to 2025 [7] - The expert expressed a more positive outlook for CLIA in 2026 compared to previous estimates, reflecting recent QoQ recovery [4][24] This summary encapsulates the key insights from the expert call regarding the current state and future outlook of China's IVD market, highlighting growth trends, competitive dynamics, and the impact of policy changes.