中国房地产：投资者反馈- 从 “观望” 转向怀疑；2025 财年盈利前瞻-China Property (H_A)_ Investor feedback_ “wait-and-see” to skepticism; FY25 earnings preview

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the China Property sector, focusing on developers and property managers, with insights into earnings forecasts and market dynamics. Core Insights and Arguments 1. Investor Sentiment Shift: Investor feedback has shifted from a "wait-and-see" approach to skepticism regarding policy outlook, particularly concerning mortgage subsidies and fiscal resource allocation by the Ministry of Finance [2][3] 2. Earnings Forecast Adjustments: - FY25 earnings for developers are expected to be weak, with significant reductions in core profit estimates due to anticipated impairments [3][9] - CRL and COLI are projected to experience nearly a 20% drop in core profits in 2025, while C&D and Binjiang are expected to maintain stable earnings [3][10] 3. Property Managers' Earnings Divergence: Earnings growth among property managers is expected to vary significantly, with Onewo showing flat growth, while GTS is anticipated to achieve around 20% core operating profit growth [4] 4. CR Mixc Performance: CR Mixc is expected to deliver a 10% core profit growth in FY25, with a forecast of low double-digit same-store sales growth in FY26 [5][15] 5. Land Acquisition Trends: Leading developers reported a 28% YoY increase in land acquisition spending in 2025, although the pace slowed in Q4 [18][20] Important but Overlooked Content 1. Valuation Adjustments: - Yuexiu Property's price objective was cut by 8% to HKD4.6 due to lower earnings estimates, while other developers like Binjiang and COLI saw their price objectives remain unchanged despite earnings cuts [12][13] 2. Market Conditions: The overall market conditions are characterized by a multi-year downturn, with macro indicators weakening to levels that historically trigger policy responses [2][3] 3. Future Outlook: The potential for coordinated policymaking by the Central government could provide a positive signal for the sector, despite current uncertainties [2] Earnings Estimates Overview - Developers: - CR Land: 20,557 million RMB, -19% YoY - COLI: 12,807 million RMB, -19% YoY - Yuexiu Properties: 312 million RMB, -80% YoY - Longfor: (504) million RMB, n.a. [10] - Property Managers: - Greentown Services: 879 million RMB, +32% YoY - CR Mixc: 3,863 million RMB, +10% YoY [10] Conclusion The conference call highlights a cautious outlook for the China Property sector, with significant earnings adjustments and a divergence in performance among developers and property managers. The potential for policy changes and market recovery remains a focal point for investors.