中国经济展望：中国住房调研-情绪疲软，分化显著-China Economic Perspectives_ China Housing Survey_ weak sentiment, notable divergence

Summary of China Housing Survey Insights Industry Overview - The document discusses the current state of the Chinese housing market, based on the UBS Evidence Lab's China Housing Survey conducted from October 28 to November 18, 2025, with 2,500 respondents across mainland China [2][8]. Key Insights Housing Market Sentiment - Housing purchase intention and overall sentiment have shown a slight improvement but remain subdued compared to historical norms. The percentage of respondents planning to buy properties in the next two years increased to 30%, up from 27% in the previous year [8]. - Selling intention has also strengthened, with 17% of homeowners planning to sell in the next 1-2 years, compared to 10% previously [8]. Price Expectations - Over 50% of respondents reported a decline in property prices over the past six months, with tier 1 cities experiencing the most significant deterioration [3][17]. - 42% of respondents expect housing prices to decline further in the next 12 months, while only 19% anticipate an increase [18]. - The average new and secondary residential prices fell by over 12% and 21% from peak levels by December 2025, respectively [17]. Divergence Among City Tiers - There is a notable divergence in sentiment among different city tiers. Tier 1 cities reported the sharpest price declines and increased paper losses, while tier 3 cities saw a slight improvement in sentiment due to previous sharp declines in prices [4][10]. - 11% of respondents in tier 3 cities reported stronger confidence compared to 0% in tier 1 cities [10]. Economic Factors Influencing Sentiment - Concerns over stalled projects have eased, but they remain a significant factor depressing sentiment. Respondents indicated that further property policy easing, including mortgage rate cuts and improved salary growth, are crucial for boosting confidence [5][34]. - The People's Bank of China (PBC) is expected to cut policy rates by 10-20 basis points in 2026, potentially leading to 30-40 basis points in mortgage rate cuts [6][39]. Wealth Effect and Consumption - The negative wealth effect is likely to continue impacting household consumption, with 52% of homeowners reporting paper losses [22]. The average mortgage servicing burden is 27.1% of monthly income, slightly higher than previous surveys [22]. - The combination of increased paper losses and a high debt servicing burden suggests ongoing constraints for household consumption, although a recent equity market rally may provide some offset [22]. Future Outlook - The property downturn in China is expected to persist into 2026-2027, albeit with smaller declines in property sales and investment (projected 5-10% decline in 2026 compared to -9%/-17% in 2025) [6][39]. - The sustainability of the marginal improvements in sentiment, particularly in tier 3 cities, remains questionable given the latest weak market data [10][19]. Additional Considerations - The survey indicates that government assistance in cash or coupons is viewed as a significant boost to confidence, with 23% of respondents citing it as important [9]. - The shift from pre-sale schemes to completed-only projects is expected to continue, which may alleviate concerns over project delivery [29]. This summary encapsulates the key findings and insights from the UBS Evidence Lab's China Housing Survey, highlighting the current challenges and potential future developments in the Chinese housing market.