铜：宏观强劲，微观疲软-Copper_ Macro Strength, Micro Weakness

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - Industry: Copper Market - Date: January 22, 2026 Core Insights 1. Macro Factors Supporting Copper Prices: The macroeconomic environment remains favorable for copper, with anticipated interest rate cuts and demand for real assets driving support. New demand themes, such as data centers, are also contributing to this trend [2][4][9] 2. Supply Tightness: Limited growth in copper mine supply is expected in 2026, with a forecasted deficit of approximately 600,000 tonnes. This is due to minimal supply growth (0.2%) being offset by strong demand growth (1.8%) from emerging sectors [4][42] 3. US Import Demand Moderating: There has been a recent moderation in US copper import demand, with rising LME inventories. The narrowing of the COMEX-LME spread has reduced financial incentives for further imports [3][10][11] 4. Chinese Demand Weakness: China's apparent copper demand has weakened, with exports increasing and inventories rising counterseasonally. This trend is expected to continue into the Lunar New Year, leading to seasonal demand weakness [3][25][26] 5. Short-term Volatility Expected: While the overall market remains tight, short-term price volatility is anticipated due to uncertainties regarding US import trajectories and limited data from China until March [4][9] Additional Important Insights 1. Impact of Tariffs: The potential for US tariffs on refined copper remains a significant factor for the market. The decision on tariffs will be crucial for the outlook in the second half of 2026 and into 2027 [11][24] 2. China's Refined Output Growth: Despite tight global copper concentrate markets, China's refined copper output grew by 10% in 2025, reaching record levels. This growth is supported by increased scrap imports and domestic production [37][41] 3. Future Supply Recovery: There is potential for recovery in copper supply in the latter half of 2026 and into 2027, with several mines expected to restart operations [43] 4. Data Void Ahead: The upcoming Lunar New Year will limit data availability from China, complicating demand assessments until mid-March [26] Conclusion The copper market is currently characterized by a supportive macroeconomic backdrop and tight supply conditions, but faces challenges from moderating US demand and weakening Chinese consumption. The outlook remains cautiously optimistic, with potential for volatility and significant developments related to tariff decisions and supply recovery in the coming months.