中国宏观：“中国正胜出” 叙事回归-China macro The return of _China is winning_ narrative

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The discussion centers around the Chinese economy and its 2-speed growth model, highlighting the divergence between strong sectors (exports/manufacturing) and weak sectors (consumption/property) [3][5]. Core Insights and Arguments - The narrative regarding China's economic performance has shifted from a simplistic view of "China in recession" to a more nuanced perspective that acknowledges both strengths and weaknesses [3][10]. - The strong track of the economy, particularly in technology sectors such as AI and robotics, has gained more attention, while the weak track remains subdued [5][9]. - Key factors contributing to the narrative shift include: - Re-evaluation of Chinese tech: Increased appreciation for China's capabilities in innovative sectors [9]. - Trade resilience: Despite a 20% decline in exports to the US, overall exports remained stable in 2025 [9]. - Easing of "Japanification" fears: Concerns about prolonged deflation have lessened, leading to rising bond yields since early 2025 [9]. - Weak US dollar: The dollar index fell by 9% in 2025, allowing MSCI China to outperform the S&P 500 for the first time since 2020 [9]. - US policies: Current US trade and geopolitical policies have indirectly benefited China [9]. Additional Important Insights - The market's improved performance may attract more foreign investors, leading to a better understanding of China's economic landscape [11]. - A balanced perspective is essential; while the narrative of "China is winning" is gaining traction, it does not negate the ongoing challenges, particularly in domestic demand and deflation [12][14]. - The CNY (Chinese Yuan) is expected to remain passive, tied to the US dollar, until a significant domestic economic recovery occurs [23]. - The 2025 market rally was primarily driven by multiple re-ratings rather than earnings growth, which remains muted due to the deflationary environment [12][15]. Future Considerations - The potential for a fundamental recovery in the Chinese economy is contingent upon significant demand-side stimulus [22]. - The narrative shift from "un-investable" to "partly investable" in the Chinese market, particularly in tech and export sectors, indicates a cautious optimism among investors [21]. - The weak track of the economy is likely to persist as long as the strong track remains robust, suggesting a prolonged period of 2-speed growth [14].