中国保障性住房：下行周期或再持续两年-China-Managed Housing Downcycle to Last Another Two Years

Summary of the Conference Call on China's Housing Market Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the Chinese housing market and its ongoing adjustments, highlighting the expected trends and macroeconomic implications over the next few years. Key Points and Arguments Housing Market Downcycle - The managed housing downcycle is projected to last another two years, with prices expected to decline by 8% in 2026 and 6% in 2027, following a 12% decline in 2025. Stabilization is anticipated in the second half of 2027 [1][3][11]. Policy Guidance - Policymakers are likely to guide continued housing adjustments while implementing guardrails to prevent uncontrolled price declines. This includes selective mortgage subsidies in cities with stronger fundamentals to support sentiment without reversing the broader correction [2][11][12]. Economic Impact - The housing market is expected to remain a significant drag on nominal GDP growth, contributing -2.3 percentage points in 2025, narrowing to -1.7 percentage points in 2026 and -1.3 percentage points in 2027. The drag is attributed to necessary price adjustments and weaker new housing starts [3][26]. Long-term Housing Demand - Long-term housing demand is projected to moderate to approximately 14 million units by 2040, down from 15-17 million units during 2021-2025. This is supported by slower urbanization and ongoing redevelopment needs [4][39][41]. Structural Changes - The market is shifting towards a secondary-dominant structure, with secondary homes expected to account for 55-60% of sales by 2030 and 70% by 2040. This reflects a broader trend of declining primary housing demand due to demographic changes [39][46]. Inflation and Savings Trends - Core inflation is expected to moderate slightly in 2026, with a mild reflation anticipated after 2027. High household savings are shifting towards riskier financial assets, indicating a potential reallocation of investment strategies [10][30]. Trade Surplus and Currency Outlook - China's trade surplus is expected to remain elevated at around 3.5% of GDP from 2025 to 2027, reflecting weak domestic demand. This environment may lead to a modest appreciation of the RMB [31]. Risks and Challenges - The housing market faces several risks, including high inventory levels, adverse demographics, and a weak job market. These factors contribute to a cautious outlook for housing prices and overall economic recovery [64][72]. Conclusion - The conference call emphasizes the complexity of the housing market adjustment in China, highlighting the need for careful policy management to navigate the ongoing challenges while aiming for stabilization and long-term growth in the sector [11][17][21].